Commented on post by Edward MorbiusBack in the day, Buzz used to have a profile tab for "comments" which listed all the posts you'd commented on in most recent activity order. I really miss this for myself and occasionally for researching other people. And if G+ had it, they might then be able to provide an API which queried it. Buzz also had a commenter:profile_id search keyword. That's also missing in G+ and might have been used in the search API to query people's commenting habits. With the API, you could go from search to post to comments on that post and then start analysing the profiles doing the commenting. And checking their posting and other activity. Over time you might build up a picture of the power law distribution of commenters vs commenting. Hey ho. In short, no. It's not going to be easy to spot people who only comment except by laborious manual work. — G+ Profile activity -- "active" public sharing accounts vs. "inactive" non-public-sharing accounts -- is there a silent but deadly active majority? No, there isn't. One of the frequent challenges I've seen is that by only looking at public shares and evaluating accounts on that basis, my results are somehow "wrong". I've tried to be as clear as possible, explaining several different ways, that I can only see what I can see, that there are many possible measurements, and the validity of one doesn't mean another was invalid: if you pull out a tape measure and measure me as 5'8", you're not wrong because I step on a scale and say "but no, I weigh 170#". They're two different things. I'm looking at measures of public posting activity on G+. Not on Facebook. Not on Twitter. Not on the moon. Not daily logins. Not +1s or comments or Hangouts. Public posts on G+. That said, there are a few other bits of information we can tease from the datasets. G+ profiles include a "views" count, and sometimes a "followers" count. I can see those. And they give a handle on the "actives" vs. "inactives" and whether or not they're actually similar in total use patterns on G+. So, in the interest of comparing the "inactive" (no public shares) and "active" profiles, let's compare views counts for two sets of profiles. I'd previously randomly sampled 30 "inactive" profiles, there's a pastebin of them linked from a few spots including my Ello post. I'm using that here so that others can check and confirm results. http://pastebin.com/6d6uTBgy I've also posted the 4,215 "active" profile IDs. http://pastebin.com/tmdcsKLZ The Ello page and primary analysis are here: https://ello.co/dredmorbius/post/nAya9WqdemIoVuVWVOYQUQ Just to clarify terminology, "Inactive" here means "no public posts", as indicated by the text "hasn't shared anything with you" being found on a profile page when accessed publicly from a non-authenticated session. All other accounts are considered "active", though research suggests about 1% should be classified in other ways. Because you learn things about data as you work with it, the labels I initially chose don't quite fit them perfectly, but that's the general idea. G+ "view" counts For details on G+ "view" counts, what they show, what they don't, where they're visible, and where they're not, see: https://support.google.com/plus/answer/6005374?p=profile_views&rd=1 When you look at your profile, you can see your total number of views. That means you can tell how many times your content has been seen by other people, including your photos, posts, and profile page. From +Yonatan Zunger: What does this number count? This is total views on your profile, your posts, your photos, and your videos. What constitutes a "view?" For your profile, when someone goes to view your profile page. For other things, it's when they look at it -- e.g., when one of your posts shows up on someone's screen. (That's because this is how most people read posts: showing up in a stream, without clicking on it explicitly) Looking at your hovercard doesn't count. Views are not exact, may not be updated in real time, and can be disabled by the profile owner. ⚫ 11 sampled "inactives" have no public activity at all. That's equivalent to 724.7 million profiles, or 33% of all G+ profiles. ⚫ The 19 remaining "inactives" are equivalent to 1.253 billion profiles. They've been viewed at up to 3,976 times. Minimum of 274, mean 343, median 538. That's on the order of one view per day over a year. Comparing inactives to actives: ⚫ The lowest measured percentile (5th) is greater than the 40th%ile of the "inactives". An account with public activity is far more active on G+ than one without. ⚫ The median active profile has 4.6x more views than the median inactive profile. ⚫ The mean active profile has 25x more views than the mean inactive profile. ⚫ The inactive median (typical profile) has fewer views than the 10%ile active profile. ⚫ The median active profile has more views than the 90%ile inactive ⚫ The single most viewed of the sampled inactive profile is still below the 75%ile of the active profiles. Yes, the "inactive" sample is small, and a large set might have a few additional outliers, but the inference is clear: Profiles which don't post publicly are typically far less active on G+ than those which do. The "inactives" typically show some activity, but far less than the "active" accounts. The argument for a tremendous number of dark but highly-active accounts seems fairly mythbusted. It's also worth noting that in my general observations as a heavy user of G+, most even modestly active accounts will have 10,000 - 100,000 or more views. The maximum value for "inactives" is well below this threshold. Summary Data "Inactive" accounts 30 sampled of 41,214 initially identified profiles. 11 of the "inactives" had no views data. Of the other 19, distribution is as follows: n: 19 sum: 16030 min: 274 max: 3976 mean: 843.684211 median: 538 sd: 902.950968 %-ile: 5: 274 10: 279 15: 280 20: 325 25: 340 30: 355 35: 369 40: 378 45: 476 55: 597 60: 630 65: 716 70: 723 75: 852 80: 1120 85: 1798 90: 2004 95: 2990 "Active" accounts n: 3725 sum: 78489647 min: 250 max: 21088213 mean: 21071.046174 median: 2446 sd: 372847.959301 %-ile: 5: 467.5 10: 624 15: 778 20: 967 25: 1138.5 30: 1305 35: 1543.5 40: 1793 45: 2079.5 55: 2912 60: 3551.5 65: 4406.5 70: 5603.5 75: 7717.5 80: 11354.5 85: 14329.5 90: 19239.5 95: 37821.5 =========================================================== Another 20 runs. Method: create 20 samples of 30 records from the original set of 41,214 "inactive" samples. Linux 'sort -r' and head used via loop. Fetch profile pages. Summarize page views for each run. Activity present: 23, 19, 19, 23, 18, 20, 17, 17, 20, 18, 21, 19, 24, 18, 18, 21, 21, 19, 24, 16 Mean active profiles: 19.750000 As expected, the mean jumps around considerably -- it's skewed by outliers more than the median. Though that also moves a fair bit. Still not too far off the first run above. The mean of medians is 695.875000. Mean and median only mean: 2119.347826 median: 789 mean: 5777.263158 median: 677 mean: 1964.894737 median: 516 mean: 1008.782609 median: 723 mean: 701.444444 median: 567.5 mean: 711.600000 median: 598 mean: 1587.411765 median: 722 mean: 2568.647059 median: 928 mean: 1191.350000 median: 561 mean: 5451.444444 median: 874.5 mean: 3241.238095 median: 1014 mean: 1954.631579 median: 679 mean: 7730.083333 median: 709.5 mean: 2625.666667 median: 556.5 mean: 5305.333333 median: 646.5 mean: 2552.714286 median: 765 mean: 778.095238 median: 667 mean: 719.947368 median: 509 mean: 987.083333 median: 673.5 mean: 761.875000 median: 741.5 n Taking the full 600 records: 34% show no views counts and are considered inactive Of the remainder: n: 395, sum: 991502 min: 251, max: 119442 mean: 2510.131646, median: 693, sd: 8929.107955 %-ile: 5: 289.5 10: 329 15: 350, 20: 376 25: 431 30: 486, 35: 516 40: 573 45: 654, 55: 727.5 60: 787.5 65: 887, 70: 1005 75: 1196 80: 1352.5, 85: 2152 90: 3145.5 95: 9541 Full summary stats of individual samples #1 n: 23, sum: 48745, min: 259, max: 21808, mean: 2119.347826, median: 789, sd: 4534.713989 %-ile: 5: 268.5, 10: 291.5, 15: 306, 20: 321, 25: 424, 30: 500.5, %35: 507, 40: 529, 45: 608, 55: 812, 60: 837.5, 65: 1011, 70: %1191.5, 75: 1261, 80: 2302.5, 85: 4145.5, 90: 5399.5, 95: 5747 #2 n: 19, sum: 109768, min: 269, max: 77963, mean: 5777.263158, median: 677, sd: 17777.678876 %-ile: 5: 269, 10: 302, 15: 346, 20: 348, 25: 401, 30: 409, 35: %509, 40: 535, 45: 659, 55: 683, 60: 696, 65: 782, 70: 980, 75: %1046, 80: 1508, 85: 9773, 90: 11882, 95: 44922.5 #3 n: 19, sum: 37333, min: 251, max: 21522, mean: 1964.894737, median: 516, sd: 4825.339872 %-ile: 5: 251, 10: 260, 15: 265, 20: 282, 25: 299, 30: 331, 35: %340, 40: 374, 45: 443, 55: 565, 60: 679, 65: 699, 70: 813, 75: %1273, 80: 2294, 85: 2569, 90: 3558, 95: 12540 #4 n: 23, sum: 23202, min: 260, max: 4385, mean: 1008.782609, median: 723, sd: 895.350107 %-ile: 5: 293.5, 10: 349.5, 15: 418, 20: 519, 25: 622, 30: 641, 35: %672.5, 40: 699.5, 45: 715, 55: 758, 60: 818.5, 65: 882.5, 70: 920, %75: 1041, 80: 1236, 85: 1485.5, 90: 2167.5, 95: 2702 #5 n: 18, sum: 12626, min: 255, max: 2360, mean: 701.444444, median: 567.5, sd: 475.157339 %-ile: 5: 255, 10: 262, 15: 305, 20: 367.5, 25: 416, 30: 470, 35: %509.5, 40: 528, 45: 548.5, 55: 642.5, 60: 712, 65: 732, 70: 760, %75: 812.5, 80: 907.5, 85: 1039.5, 90: 1117, 95: 1738.5 #6 n: 20, sum: 14232, min: 301, max: 1254, mean: 711.600000, median: 598, sd: 322.523830 %-ile: 5: 328, 10: 361, 15: 406, 20: 454, 25: 470, 30: 481.5, 35: %491, 40: 506, 45: 554.5, 55: 629, 60: 675.5, 65: 831.5, 70: 973, %75: 992, 80: 1083, 85: 1178.5, 90: 1206.5, 95: 1217 #7 n: 17, sum: 26986, min: 342, max: 5697, mean: 1587.411765, median: 722, sd: 1708.219726 %-ile: 5: 342, 10: 372.5, 15: 447, 20: 495, 25: 506, 30: 542.5, 35: %622.5, 40: 683.5, 45: 708, 55: 722.5, 60: 923, 65: 1150, 70: %1798.5, 75: 2544.5, 80: 2701, 85: 4134, 90: 5535, 95: 5616 #8 n: 17, sum: 43667, min: 324, max: 22077, mean: 2568.647059, median: 928, sd: 5256.017646 %-ile: 5: 324, 10: 389.5, 15: 515, 20: 598.5, 25: 650, 30: 678.5, %35: 701, 40: 740.5, 45: 843, 55: 951, 60: 1156.5, 65: 1357.5, 70: %1409, 75: 1516, 80: 1853, 85: 4563.5, 90: 7011, 95: 14544 #9 n: 20, sum: 23827, min: 272, max: 4793, mean: 1191.350000, median: 561, sd: 1366.873855 %-ile: 5: 285.5, 10: 313, 15: 346.5, 20: 369, 25: 390.5, 30: 420, %35: 446.5, 40: 484.5, 45: 515.5, 55: 629, 60: 704, 65: 774, 70: %809.5, 75: 1332.5, 80: 2001, 85: 2604, 90: 3719, 95: 4386 #10 n: 18, sum: 98126, min: 289, max: 56871, mean: 5451.444444, median: 874.5, sd: 13306.738343 %-ile: 5: 289, 10: 312.5, 15: 353.5, 20: 401.5, 25: 459, 30: 508, %35: 544.5, 40: 568.5, 45: 692.5, 55: 1167.5, 60: 1425.5, 65: %1655.5, 70: 2270.5, 75: 5097, 80: 7620.5, 85: 10513.5, 90: 13292, %95: 35081.5 #11 n: 21, sum: 68066, min: 317, max: 21804, mean: 3241.238095, median: 1014, sd: 5819.849843 %-ile: 5: 350, 10: 394.5, 15: 433, 20: 537.5, 25: 682, 30: 762.5, %35: 795, 40: 870.5, 45: 953, 55: 1050, 60: 1136, 65: 1248, 70: %1435.5, 75: 2114, 80: 2716.5, 85: 6464.5, 90: 13609.5, 95: 17069 #12 n: 19, sum: 37138, min: 258, max: 25312, mean: 1954.631579, median: 679, sd: 5664.634795 %-ile: 5: 258, 10: 273, 15: 359, 20: 366, 25: 405, 30: 420, 35: %424, 40: 491, 45: 570, 55: 710, 60: 761, 65: 781, 70: 910, 75: 946, %80: 1005, 85: 1066, 90: 1402, 95: 13357 #13 n: 24, sum: 185522, min: 264, max: 119442, mean: 7730.083333, median: 709.5, sd: 25142.732298 %-ile: 5: 294.5, 10: 335.5, 15: 346.5, 20: 370, 25: 459.5, 30: %513.5, 35: 539, 40: 623, 45: 666, 55: 736.5, 60: 750, 65: 952, 70: %1028, 75: 1268, 80: 2088, 85: 5804, 90: 24402.5, 95: 40117 #14 n: 18, sum: 47262, min: 317, max: 15982, mean: 2625.666667, median: 556.5, sd: 4368.860883 %-ile: 5: 317, 10: 329, 15: 346.5, 20: 358.5, 25: 370, 30: 414.5, %35: 469, 40: 507, 45: 541, 55: 563, 60: 693, 65: 871, 70: 1089.5, %75: 3640.5, 80: 7037.5, 85: 8680.5, 90: 9309, 95: 12645.5 #15 n: 18, sum: 95496, min: 290, max: 56172, mean: 5305.333333, median: 646.5, sd: 13623.848696 %-ile: 5: 290, 10: 294, 15: 302, 20: 336, 25: 390, 30: 454.5, 35: %504, 40: 556, 45: 605.5, 55: 742, 60: 1002.5, 65: 1232, 70: 1288, %75: 1758, 80: 4503, 85: 13983.5, 90: 21163, 95: 38667.5 #16 n: 21, sum: 53607, min: 356, max: 16230, mean: 2552.714286, median: 765, sd: 4217.488911 %-ile: 5: 363.5, 10: 374, 15: 396, 20: 446.5, 25: 478.5, 30: 540, %35: 638, 40: 697.5, 45: 723.5, 55: 955.5, 60: 1134.5, 65: 1307.5, %70: 1415, 75: 2118.5, 80: 3130.5, 85: 5193.5, 90: 9603, 95: 12263 #17 n: 21, sum: 16340, min: 251, max: 2294, mean: 778.095238, median: 667, sd: 552.781322 %-ile: 5: 253.5, 10: 298.5, 15: 342, 20: 343.5, 25: 359, 30: 382.5, %35: 428.5, 40: 544, 45: 638, 55: 710, 60: 752, 65: 815.5, 70: %861.5, 75: 929.5, 80: 1000.5, 85: 1139.5, 90: 1703.5, 95: 2148 #18 n: 19, sum: 13679, min: 258, max: 2205, mean: 719.947368, median: 509, sd: 551.789661 %-ile: 5: 258, 10: 299, 15: 310, 20: 336, 25: 343, 30: 352, 35: %357, 40: 413, 45: 489, 55: 532, 60: 646, 65: 675, 70: 694, 75: 976, %80: 1136, 85: 1239, 90: 1910, 95: 2057.5 #19 n: 24, sum: 23690, min: 308, max: 3353, mean: 987.083333, median: 673.5, sd: 877.309668 %-ile: 5: 313.5, 10: 322, 15: 329.5, 20: 348, 25: 375.5, 30: 400, %35: 441, 40: 571, 45: 613, 55: 710.5, 60: 782, 65: 862, 70: 970.5, %75: 1168.5, 80: 1304, 85: 2436.5, 90: 2745, 95: 2832 #20 n: 16, sum: 12190, min: 272, max: 1939, mean: 761.875000, median: 741.5, sd: 425.842518 %-ile: 5: 272, 10: 302, 15: 336.5, 20: 396, 25: 457.5, 30: 479.5, %35: 479.5, 40: 549, 45: 658.5, 55: 773, 60: 786.5, 65: 835.5, 70: %835.5, 75: 938.5, 80: 1033, 85: 1180, 90: 1296, 95: 1617.5 ================================================================ But let's dig even deeper. Again, here's the stats for 600 randomly sampled profiles with no public shares: 34% show no views counts and are considered inactive Of the remainder: n: 395, sum: 991502 min: 251, max: 119442 mean: 2510.131646, median: 693, sd: 8929.107955 %-ile: 5: 289.5 10: 329 15: 350, 20: 376 25: 431 30: 486, 35: 516 40: 573 45: 654, 55: 727.5 60: 787.5 65: 887, 70: 1005 75: 1196 80: 1352.5, 85: 2152 90: 3145.5 95: 9541 For actives: n: 3725 sum: 78489647 min: 250 max: 21088213 mean: 21071.046174 median: 2446 sd: 372847.959301 %-ile: 5: 467.5 10: 624 15: 778 20: 967 25: 1138.5 30: 1305 35: 1543.5 40: 1793 45: 2079.5 55: 2912 60: 3551.5 65: 4406.5 70: 5603.5 75: 7717.5 80: 11354.5 85: 14329.5 90: 19239.5 95: 37821.5 That "inactive" median there shows 693 views. That's just above the 10%ile mark for "actives". Let's assume that the profile has been active for one year. That means 1 other person viewing the profile 2x daily, on average. Or 2 1x daily. Or 10 once every 5 days. Or 20 once every 10 days. The "active" median is above the 85%ile of "inactives". Meaning *fewer than 15% of non-publicly-posting accounts have activity equal to or above that of publicly-posting ones. That ... doesn't sound highly active to me. Doing math: 2,200 million * 90% (percent "non-public") * 66% (percent with any activity) * 15% (at/above median): 196 million additional profile with some posting activity at/above the median "public" profile. That's compared against ~198 million publicly-posting profiles. So perhaps we've doubled the count. If posting activity with time is comparable, then perhaps there's another 4-6 million accounts active in the past month that haven't posted publicly. Yes, it's double the number in my first set of results, but: ⚫ It's still a pretty number overall -- 8-12 million active participants in 18 days. ⚫ The activity isn't public -- it's not available for search, conversation, or to draw in other participants. Yes, I realize, thatsthepoint.jpg, but my interest on G+ (or elsewhere) is conversations that I can join in on. +CircleCount posts typical followers per profile, though their numbers disagree with mine, showing a much higher typical numbers of followers. I suspect this is because they're sampling based off of submitted profiles (that is, selected for inclusion by a CircleCount user). Which highlights again the importance of sampling methods and sample selection: http://www.circlecount.com/statistic/follower/ 16.2% show no data. I'll assume (note that's an assumption not an assertion) that this follows the pattern for other profiles. 8.5% have 1-9 followers 6.6% have 10-19 5.6% have 20-29 4.7% have 30-39 (25% cumulative total) 4.2% have 40-49 3.8% have 50-59 (33.4%, important later) 3.5% have 60-69 3.2% have 70-79 2.9% have 80-89 2.4% have 90-99 6.4% have 100-125 (note the bracket size increase) ... and we're at half of all profiles. I can find followers data for 88 of my 300 sampled "inactive" profiles. Here's the top 20: 1 53 followers|21,808 views 2 53 followers|21,804 views 3 53 followers|4,793 views 4 34 followers|21,522 views 5 33 followers|77,963 views 6 23 followers|1,259 views 7 22 followers|16,230 views 8 20 followers|1,063 views 9 19 followers|13,292 views 10 16 followers|12,263 views 11 14 followers|15,982 views 12 10 followers|1,442 views 13 10 followers|967 views 14 10 followers|570 views 15 9 followers|679 views 16 8 followers|532 views 17 7 followers|56,172 views 18 7 followers|17,069 views 19 7 followers|3,444 views 20 7 followers|1,205 views Given the sample size, each of these stands for roughly 14.9 million accounts. From the publicly active set: 1 67,855 followers|21,088,213 views 2 6,716 followers|1,213,683 views 3 5,263 followers|5,476,803 views 4 3,692 followers|2,438,437 views 5 2,833 followers|129,194 views 6 2,679 followers|708,260 views 7 1,839 followers|616,653 views 8 1,760 followers|47,017 views 9 1,345 followers|1,951,547 views 10 1,238 followers|365,212 views 11 906 followers|15,202 views 12 885 followers|84,695 views 13 530 followers|290,613 views 14 425 followers|19,762 views 15 413 followers|123,320 views 16 412 followers|3,234 views 17 371 followers|6,709 views 18 348 followers|11,674 views 19 339 followers|13,446 views 20 335 followers|145,621 views ... vastly larger follower and view counts, which is what we'd expect. But let's look at univariate stats for both: Publicly Inactive Followers: n: 88, sum: 561, min: 1, max: 53, mean: 6.375000, median: 2, sd: 10.953730 %-ile: 5: 1, 10: 1, 15: 1, 20: 1, 25: 1, 30: 1, 35: 1, 40: 2, 45: 2, 55: 2, 60: 3, 65: 4, 70: 4.5, 75: 6.5, 80: 7, 85: 10, 90: 19.5, 95: 33.5 Views: n: 88, sum: 638656, min: 265, max: 119442, mean: 7257.454545, median: 1012.5, sd: 17720.702361 %-ile: 5: 298.5, 10: 335, 15: 368.5, 20: 408.5, 25: 477.5, 30: 503, 35: 570.5, 40: 689, 45: 912, 55: 1211, 60: 1340, 65: 2027.5, 70: 2824.5, 75: 5245, 80: 7893.5, 85: 12777.5, 90: 21663, 95: 48144.5 Publicly Active Followers: n: 1890, sum: 125539, min: 1, max: 67855, mean: 66.422751, median: 5, sd: 1579.404405 %-ile: 5: 1, 10: 1, 15: 1, 20: 1, 25: 2, 30: 2, 35: 2, 40: 3, 45: 4, 55: 6, 60: 7, 65: 8, 70: 10, 75: 13, 80: 18, 85: 24, 90: 34, 95: 69 Views: n: 1890, sum: 66647773, min: 252, max: 21088213, mean: 35263.371958, median: 3419.5, sd: 522757.797486 %-ile: 5: 576.5, 10: 855.5, 15: 1076, 20: 1311, 25: 1566.5, 30: 1847.5, 35: 2153.5, 40: 2518, 45: 2947, 55: 4045, 60: 4890, 65: 5982.5, 70: 7645, 75: 10157, 80: 13468, 85: 18576, 90: 27814.5, 95: 54290 The top most viewed sampled private profile has an 85%ile view count, and a 95%ile follower count. By the time we reach the 20th in the sample, we're at a 60%ile follower count. At the 35%ile, "inactive's" followers are still 1. The median active account's followers (5) would earn it a 70%ile rating among inactives. Again: the argument that somehow there's a huge pool, many times that of the publicly-active profile set, of massively active and connected profiles not posting publicly isn't supported by the data.