Let me try a little alternate history
- 9/11 changed everything. It meant that Bush had to do something. And as many leaders have discovered throughout history, there's nothing like a little war to keep the populace on your side. So Bush is fully committed to regime change in Iraq regardless of the facts.

- This then leaves Blair in a tricky situation as soon as he finds out. It's impossible for him to follow France and would potentially do huge amounts of damage economically to the UK's many business interests in the USA. But he can't actually come out and say this. SO he has no alternative but to support the USA

- Bush and the NeoCons have already decided they are going into Iraq, but they aren't ready yet to dismantle the UN so everyone searches round for excuses that let them go ahead anyway.

- Blair gets roped into this. And unfortunately the complete lack of political opposition means that he has no leverage over Bush to temper the response. So he's stuck on a path of doctoring evidence and intelligence, spinning legal briefs, hiding facts from cabinet and parliament

- The rest plays out.

So the big lie is actually Bush's but to some extent he's excused by 9/11. Blair's big lie is to go along with this and not to tell the truth which is that the UK cannot afford to go against the USA. Blair's continuing lie is to go on saying the same half truths and story that Bush/Blair cooked up to get them round the UN. Everyone knows this. But nobody can say it, because it would expose that Bush and Blair were going to go ahead regardless. And that's potentially disastrous (even though everyone knows it) because it makes them no different from Saddam.

What's worse about all this is that Labour depserately want the whole issue to go away so that they don't ever have to say what really happened. And even though they try and avoid calling the election a referendum on Iraq, you can be sure that if they get a big majority it will be used as after the fact justification for everything they did.

Which brings us back to the one big word, IRAQ. The best way of making sure that this doesn't happen again, and that Labour don't feel that the populace have given them carte blanche to do whatever they like is to try to prevent a big Labour Majority. It's OK if they get in, and they are probably preferable to a Conservative government. But it must be with a much reduced and preferably pretty small majority. And the best way to make sure that happens is to keep on banging away at the IRAQ issue for the remaining 48 hours.

Labour In - Blair Out

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[ 04-May-05 2:01pm ] [ ]