02-Sep-10
He cited "pressure" put on his family by the "untrue and malicious allegations" circulating on the Internet.
Today David Cameron declared his "100% support" for,Hague;who also has had the backing of his local constituency party chair
At a press conference this morning Hague refused to be drawn on his decision to appoint Myers, or respond to the suggestion that he had exercised "poor judgment" in sharing a hotel room with his assistant.He said: "Yesterday, I made a very personal statement, which was not an easy thing to do. I am not going to expand on that today."
He was still being pushed on Myers's eligibility for the job, and why he had given Myers the job despite already having two special advisers.Apparently there had been unease in Downing Street at Hague's judgment in appointing a 25-year-old graduate with little apparent expertise in foreign affairs.
Was the statement the wisest way to respond to Guido's rumours. Somehow I think he would
have been wiser to keep quiet. Hague admitted to "occasionally" sharing hotel rooms with Myers during the election campaign. But he added: "Neither of us would have done so if we had thought that it in any way meant or implied something else. In hindsight, I should have given greater consideration to what might have been made of that, but this is in itself no justification for allegations of this kind.
Is this sort of death by pen the way we want to see society being steered. I certainly don't.
Mr Hagues sexuality is his business.His lack of judgement is another ,and as Foreign secretary a matter that he needs to reflect on.
What about Ffion Hague in all this, is she really the sort of woman who would be a front for her husband if he was gay.I wouldn't have thought so .She is a significant author, businesswoman and broadcaster in her own right, she's nobody's second fiddle.
It will be interesting to see if Guido backs off,especially as some big name bloggers have had a go at him over this.Or will it just spur him on.
The Electoral Commission has just published its report on Cheryl Gillan's proposed question for the referendum on primary lawmaking powers, and ended up by making a suggestion of its own.
However the question they have come up with is, quite bluntly, wrong.
The National Assembly for Wales:
what happens at the momentThe Assembly has powers to make laws on 20 subject areas, such as:
• agriculture
• education
• the environment
• health
• housing
• local governmentIn each subject area, the Assembly can make laws on some matters, but not others. To make laws on any of these other matters, the Assembly must ask the UK Parliament for its agreement. The UK Parliament then decides each time whether or not the Assembly can make these laws.
The Assembly cannot make laws on subject areas such as defence, tax or welfare benefits, whatever the result of this vote.
If most voters vote 'yes'
The Assembly will be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for, without needing the UK Parliament's agreement.If most voters vote 'no'
What happens at the moment will continue.Question
Do you want the Assembly now to be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for?Yes
No
It is misleading because, even after a Yes vote, the Assembly will not be able to make laws on "all matters" in the 20 subject areas it has powers for.
There are, in fact, many things within those 20 subject areas that the Assembly will still not be able to pass laws on. There is a long list of exceptions and exclusions, as set out in Schedule 7 of the GoWA 2006.
As one example of this, look at Highways and Transport (Subject 10). The basic area of competence seems clear enough:
Highways, including bridges and tunnels. Streetworks. Traffic management and regulation. Transport facilities and services.
But then we get the exceptions:
Exceptions—
Registration of local bus services, and the application and enforcement of traffic regulation conditions in relation to those services.
Road freight transport services, including goods vehicles operating licensing.
Regulation of use of motor vehicles and trailers on roads, their construction and equipment and conditions under which they may be so used, apart from regulation of use of vehicles carrying animals for purpose of protecting human, animal, fish or plant heath, animal welfare or the environment.
Road traffic offences.
Driver licensing.
Driving instruction.
Insurance of motor vehicles.
Drivers' hours.
Traffic regulation on special roads, pedestrian crossings, traffic signs and speed limits.
International road transport services for passengers.
Public service vehicle operator licensing.
Documents relating to vehicles and drivers for purposes of travel abroad and vehicles brought temporarily into Wales by persons resident outside the United Kingdom.
Vehicle excise duty and vehicle registration.
Provision and regulation of railway services, apart from financial assistance
which—
(a) does not relate to the carriage of goods,
(b) is not made in connection with a railway administration order, and
(c) is not made in connection with Council Regulation (EEC) No. 1191/69 as amended by Council Regulation (EEC) No. 1893/91 on public service obligations in transport.Transport security.
Railway heritage.
Aviation, air transport, airports and aerodromes, apart from—
(a) financial assistance to providers or proposed providers of air transport services or airport facilities or services,
(b) strategies by the Welsh Ministers or local or other public authorities about provision of air services, and
(c) regulation of use of aircraft carrying animals for purpose of protecting human, animal, fish or plant heath, animal welfare or the environment.Shipping, apart from—
(a) financial assistance for shipping services to, from or within Wales, and
(b) regulation of use of vessels carrying animals for purpose of protecting human, animal, fish or plant heath, animal welfare or the environment.Navigational rights and freedoms, apart from regulation of works which may obstruct or endanger navigation.
Technical and safety standards of vessels.
Harbours, docks, piers and boatslips, apart from—
(a) those used or required wholly or mainly for the fishing industry, for recreation, or for communication between places in Wales (or for two or more of those purposes), and
(b) regulation for the purposes of protecting human, animal, fish or plant health, animal welfare or the environment.Carriage of dangerous goods (including transport of radioactive material).
With such an extensive list of exceptions it is ludicrous to make out that the Assembly will be able to make laws on all things that fall under the subject heading of Highways and Transport. Yet the EC's question clearly states that the Assembly will "be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for".
It even puts the "all" in bold letters. It's their emphasis, not mine.
-
So I despair. To put the question in this form is misleading. As I've said before, there is no way in which any form of question can encapsulate the complexity of the primary lawmaking powers the Assembly will get after a Yes vote unless it makes reference to Schedule 7 of the GoWA 2006.
Yes, I do recognize that they are attempting to make the question understandable—and that, of course, is a good thing—but they are in fact doing exactly the opposite. They are fuelling confusion.
This is not news; anymore that the spectacle of two glib numpties and a gnome smart-arsing as they pander to middle-class preoccupations with lumps of metal on wheels is entertainment. Grrrr.
01-Sep-10

The first nursery at the House of Commons, opens today and will be run by the London Early Years Foundation.
The nursery will provide full daycare for the children of MPs, civil servants and other Westminster staff At the moment, it is not open to children of peers.
LEYF has already received interest from more than 20 parents who are considering registering their children at the setting.
This is all down to the Speaker John Bercow pushing ahead despite much opposition as you can imagine He said ,Parliament is 'behind the times' and needs to be more family-friendly.
So now the mother of all parliaments has room for children,alongside a hairdresser, travel agent, post office and a number of bars and restaurants.
About time too.
To celebrate what would be Gwynfor Evans' birthday, here is a recording of him speaking immediately after he was elected in the Carmarthen by election in July 1966. This was the first time Plaid Cymru had won a seat at Westminster.
There are versions in English and Welsh.
Stirring stuff. A reminder of how just how far behind as a nation we were before, and an inspiration to keep going until we take our own place as an independent nation in the UN and Europe ... a responsible member of the great community of nations in the world.
Thanks to Hedd Gwynfor for putting together the videos.
31-Aug-10
A recent example involves a 95 year old lady. Without going into details of the parties concerned, (as, aside from the complainant and the council, there is a third party) her nephew recently filed a complaint on her behalf, and judging by the email correspondence which I have seen he was very reasonable and clearly expressed his intention to object, even if it only resolved the worst aspects of the situation. The Planning officer visited the site and saw, agreed and clarified there had been a breach, he wrote;
"I have spoken to *** regarding the breach of planning control...has agreed to submit a planning application retrospectively....as soon as an application is submitted a notice should posted on site allowing a period to object to the application."
After a few months the nephew inquired as to the whereabouts of the application, at the beginning of May, the officer replied;
"wrote to [agents]who are dealing with the application this morning. They have been strongly advised to submit the application within 14 days.
As soon as the application is submitted I'll be in touch."
So far so good. Then, a fortnight later, to the nephew's stunned amazement this arrives;
"The deadline for the application was yesterday and the Local Planning Authority are yet to receive an application...the Local Planning Authority does not consider that the breach of planning control warrants further Enforcement action in this instance. We feel if an application was submitted there would be no in-principle objections. therefore it is not my intention to pursue this matter further.
I realise this decision will disappoint you however it has been made taking in to account relevant policies and Government advice."
It seems this was written by a different hand to the original correspondence. It pre-judges the validity of any possible objections and fails to elaborate on the vague, and rather patronising reference to policy and advice. The complainant's bemused nephew has now passed the matter on to the MP.
I have seen the view from this elderly lady's bedroom window and am shocked that the council have chosen not to act, I can guarantee that a similar view would not be tolerated from the Head of Planning's bedroom window.
I have to disagree. From my perspective, he always seemed eminently more suited to the role of dame.
272 university workers in Wales take home six-figure sums, with pay starting around £2,000 a week.
Cardiff University vice-chancellor Dr David Grant was the highest paid in 2009, having earned £275,000 with pension contributions.
OK so this sounds huge amounts - what do they do for the money ,what is their value added to the sector and the university that pays them.What do they add to GVA?
What qualifies them for the job- that's all relevant
I have no problem with salary levels if the job demands it and the incumbent earns it .
How does this compare to the rest of the UK?
I would like to see the list of the other high earners and how they match up too, this is public sector pay after all.
It's been some time since the political situation in Belgium has been in the news here, but what has happened over the weekend is probably enough to justify a progress report.
The federal election took place on 13 June this year, and resulted in large gains for the N-VA in Flanders and for the Parti Socialiste in Wallonia, but negotiations have still not led to a federal government being formed. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, as it was always expected that negotiations would take months rather than weeks. It goes without saying that the situation is complicated, but I'm going to attempt to explain things as I see them. As the EU has a penchant for pillars, I'll build on that theme.
Pillar 1
The basic premise on which agreement will be reached is that—even though the N-VA is the largest party, and therefore its leader Bart De Wever might normally expect to be Prime Minister—the Parti Socialiste leader Elio di Rupo would be Prime Minister, provided that the constitutional changes wanted by the N-VA were implemented.
The longstanding outstanding issue is the electoral/judicial district of BH-V (Brussels Halle-Vilvoorde) whose constituent parts have different constitutional statuses. Brussels is one of the three geographical regions of Belgium (the other two being Flanders and Wallonia) but Halle-Vilvoorde is part of Flanders. The three regions are constitutionally distinct from the three language communities of Belgium (Dutch, French and German-speaking) with Brussels having bilingual status. It is this overlap between "regions" and "communities" that gives rise to the problem, both at a political level (because political parties in Belgium operate as separate linguistic entities) and in terms of administration of justice.
There are of course a number of ways in which the BH-V problem could be solved, and indeed some do not see a problem at all ... or, to be more precise, would see the problem not as the electoral region itself, but in the idea of the current arrangement of regions and communities. However the Constitutional Court has ruled that the current arrangement is anomalous and must to be resolved, but has not said how. In general terms, Dutch speakers are primarily concerned that Halle-Vilvoorde remains unambiguously part of Flanders; whereas French speakers see the area as a suburb of Brussels, especially the narrow southern strip that separates Brussels from Wallonia. The map below shows Halle-Vilvoorde in red and Brussels in white. In grey is Leuven, the other district in Flemish Brabant. Wallonia is to the south.

So the first plank of the deal is that BH-V is split as the main Flemish parties want.
Pillar 2
If BH-V is split, Brussels itself becomes more tightly defined and might be seen to be disadvantaged. In time honoured fashion, the solution is to smooth any reform by means of money. So, as I read the situation, the consensus seems to be that the Brussels region should get a better financial deal. The sum being talked about is €500m a year. In political terms Brussels is run by the Parti Socialiste. So, as far as Elio di Rupo is concerned, the deal should stand on these two pillars alone ... and he does have the agreement of the Flemish Greens and Socialists, as well as the Walloon parties in the negotiations.
But the two big Flemish parties, the N-VA and CD&V, the Flemish Christian Democrats, do not want to agree a deal for financing Brussels without a wider agreement on a formula for rebalancing finances of Flanders and Wallonia as well. The negotiations now seem to have broken down on this point.
It isn't really clear what the precise sticking points are because nothing has yet been committed to paper. In general terms Flanders wants more of tax money retained at regional level rather than forwarded to federal government. Wallonia is anxious to maintain the current arrangement because it is a net beneficiary of federal redistribution. According to this report about €14bn of public spending should shift from being spent by the federal government to being spent by the regional governments, but this is only a very small part of overall public spending which is just short of €200bn a year. Also, as we in Wales and Scotland know only too well, having a budget to spend is only half of the fiscal equation - good governance is not only about spending money, it is about being responsible for how that money is raised.
-
So it remains to be seen what will happen next. As the report I linked to says:
On Sunday Di Rupo said rival sides positions' were "incompatible" and announced he would give up his mediation efforts. But a day later he said he bowed to demands by King Albert II to soldier on 'out of a sense of loyalty to the state.'
Flemish newspaper De Standaard argued that the weekend's events seriously compromised relations between the main political players, dashing initial hopes that arch-rivals Di Rupo and De Wever could strike a business-like partnership.
"We are not yet negotiating the final split-up of the Belgians. Feelings and intentions are not there yet. But on Sunday night we took a further step in that direction," the paper warned ominously.
I don't think it's reached that point yet, either. The major reason why Belgium has not split so far is because of deciding what to do about Brussels and the surrounding areas. So, if the situation as I read it is correct, an agreement about what exactly constitutes Brussels and what constitutes Flanders is more important for the eventual independence of Flanders than any shorter-term arrangement about finances. I do not think the Flemish parties would throw that away. If things are as reported, the BH-V split without additional concessions to French speakers in Halle-Vilvoorde has given them what they wanted.
But equally, the Flemish parties are not going to be content without any move towards greater fiscal autonomy for the regions. The balance between taxes set and collected by the federal treasury (about 90%) and those set and retained in the regions would need to shift. Di Rupo has proposed a Commission "to formulate proposals to suggest new funding models" but, as we in Wales and Scotland know, this might be of little value unless matched by political commitment.
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To us it might seem strange that Belgium could run without a government since June, but it isn't really a problem for them. It's not even a hundred days yet. Up until now things have been very cordial and consensual. So perhaps this first sign of so-called irreconcilable disagreement is evidence that the hard negotiation has only just begun.
30-Aug-10
29-Aug-10
John Lennon gave it to builder John Hancock, telling him "to use it as a plant pot" after he installed a new toilet. It was expected to sell for £1,000but went way over that. It had been in the builders garage for 40 years, it was sold by his son.
A whole load of Beatles memorabilia was sold for big money.
I don't see the fascination but maybe time to sort out all those Beatles LPs and EPs !!!
So Oscars 's been nominated for the regional list by the Tories then.
A meeting on Friday endorsed Mohammed Asghar as a candidate for the Tories' regional list for the
28-Aug-10
27-Aug-10
In April this year, Leighton Andrews confirmed that three primary schools in Swansea could be closed because they had large numbers of surplus spaces, and alternative schools which also had spare space were available within easy travelling distance.
At the time, I wrote posts showing how two of them, Arfryn and Cwm, would be ideal locations for Welsh-medium schools. I still think that. And I have to admit that I didn't think that the third school, Llanmorlais, would be as suitable as the other two. But that only shows my lack of detailed local knowledge, or at least my knowledge of how determined local people would be, because they definitely have other ideas about it.
The map above shows the location of the primary schools on the Gower. Click it for a larger version. It is by no means a densely populated area, as can be seen from the relatively low number of red triangles for English-medium schools on the Gower compared with the western outskirts of Swansea. It should also be noted that north and south Gower are quite distinct, each with its main east-west links, but with comparatively few north-south links.
For south Gower, getting to a Welsh-medium school means travelling to Llwynderw. For north Gower, the school is Pontybrenin, since Y Login Fach has to take children from Swansea due to the lack of more WM schools in the centre of Swansea. That results in a one way journey of over 20km for children living in Llanmadoc. Even for a rural area, this is a ridiculous distance to have to travel, even if transport is provided. The equivalent journey for children going to an EM school is only a third of that, just over 6km, to Llanrhidian.
-
When it was clear that Llanmorlais was to close, Heini Gruffudd of RhAG put together a proposal to use the Llanmorlais building as a new WM primary school. Rather than repeat what he said, the proposal itself can be downloaded directly in either English or Welsh:
The case for a Welsh-medium Primary School for Llanmorlais
The school building isn't big, but it has capacity for 106 children, plus a nursery of 15. Although that may be small by urban standards, a school of that size is perfectly viable in a more rural setting. In fact only this year Swansea have invested in work to Llanrhidian School, which is only fractionally larger with 111 pupils, plus a nursery of 20. We can read about it here. So there is nothing intrinsically wrong with a school of this size in north Gower. The only reason Llanmorlais was closed is because there weren't enough children wanting go to Llanmorlais and Penclawdd to justify keeping both open, so the smaller one was closed.
But RhAG's proposal didn't seem to cut any ice with Swansea's education department.
So what then happened is that a local parent, Menna Jenkins, actually went out to other parents of pre-school age children in north Gower, and collected signatures from the parents of 45 children who wanted them to have a Welsh-medium education. This was reported in the local press on Tuesday.
Parents take Welsh school call to council
Parents and children calling for a Welsh-medium school in North Gower took their plea to Swansea Council today. This morning, campaigners handed a petition to cabinet member for education Mike Day and head of education Richard Parry at the Civic Centre.
Welsh speaker Menna Jenkins is part of campaign group Ysgol y Ogledd Gwyr/Welsh Primary for North Gower (YOG). The mum of two from Llanmadoc said:
"Despite now having a list of 45 names of children aged up to 4 years old, who would attend a Welsh- medium primary in North Gower, the director of education is refusing to open a school in the area. We actually have more names for one school year than most of the existing Gower English-medium schools. We feel this is grossly unfair."
To me, the case is quite clear. But let's consider Swansea's response:
Swansea Council plans to increase capacity at Welsh primaries at Gellionen, Pontybrenin and Tirdeunaw. There are also plans to use Graig infants in Morriston as a Welsh school, if the Assembly approves council proposals to close the school and merge with the nearby Pentrepoeth.
I commented on the Morriston proposal in the second half of this post. And yes, it is true that Swansea Council have plans to increase capacity at Pontybrenin, as well as two other WM schools. But what they say is misleading. Each school in Wales has a defined capacity, and there is a certain amount of leeway for schools to take in more pupils. But there is a limit to how much this can happen. If a local authority wants to increase capacity by more than 25%, it needs statutory approval. This is what Swansea is in the process of trying to get, as we can read in this document:
Consultation on proposal to increase capacity of three Welsh-medium schools
But this is just a paperwork exercise. They are going through the legal process of formally increasing the capacity of the school, but they are not planning on increasing the physical space available for children in these schools. As the consultation document makes clear, there is going to be no capital expenditure on the school accommodation in order to increase space. The situation is that they have been squeezing more and more children into the original school premises, and things have finally reached the point where they cannot continue to do that because it takes them over that 25% limit.
What is happening at YGG Pontybrenin is quite clear from the StatsWales figures:
Nursery 1 ... 7
Nursery 2 ... 72
Reception ... 47
Year 1 ... 52
Year 2 ... 50
Year 3 ... 37
Year 4 ... 28
Year 5 ... 32
Year 6 ... 22Total statutory ... 268
Total ... 347
Years 4 to 6 reflect the fact that this was a one form entry school with a capacity of 230 in 2006. Because of the increase in demand, they increased the admission number because, at that time, the older year groups were smaller and there was therefore room to do so. So Swansea currently present the capacity of the school at 331 (i.e. 47 x 7). They now want to increase the admission number to 60, which would equate to a standard two form entry school with a capacity of 420.
But look at the way they've worded the statutory proposal:
YGG Pontybrenin, Loughor Road, Gorseinon, Swansea
The number of full-time pupils at the school in January 2010 was 268. The present capacity at the school is 331. After the enlargement the proposed capacity at the school will be 420. The number of pupils to be admitted to the school at age 4/5 in the first school year in which the proposals have been implemented is 60.
I venture to suggest that any person reading this without being aware of the situation on the ground would conclude that the proposal is to physically enlarge the school. It isn't. For that reason I would urge the Education Minister, for I'm sure this will be referred to him, to set a condition that the admission numbers cannot be increased unless enough additional physical space is provided so as to prevent further overcrowding. I only wish that Swansea Council would do this at their own initiative. But they haven't, and they show no sign of doing so.
But even an admission number of 60 will not be enough. The figures show that the nursery currently has well in excess of even that admission number. In physical terms, this school is going to be so jam-packed that even the parents of children at Treganna will think that their accommodation is spacious ... and in comparison with what Swansea are proposing to get away with, it will be!
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If Swansea were thinking of building a new extension block at Pontybrenin, I might have some sympathy with their intransigence to RhAG's proposal. But they're not. Or they might claim—as other local authorities have done—that it is not a good idea to have small schools, and that it is better for ch
26-Aug-10
In April this year, Leighton Andrews confirmed that three primary schools in Swansea could be closed because they had large numbers of surplus spaces, and alternative schools which also had spare space were available within easy travelling distance.
At the time, I wrote posts showing how two of them, Arfryn and Cwm, would be ideal locations for Welsh-medium schools. I still think that. And I have to admit that I didn't think that the third school, Llanmorlais, would be as suitable as the other two. But that only shows my lack of detailed local knowledge, or at least my knowledge of how determined local people would be, because they definitely have other ideas about it.
The map above shows the location of the primary schools on the Gower. Click it for a larger version. It is by no means a densely populated area, as can be seen from the relatively low number of red triangles for English-medium schools on the Gower compared with the western outskirts of Swansea. It should also be noted that north and south Gower are quite distinct, each with its main east-west links, but with comparatively few north-south links.
For south Gower, getting to a Welsh-medium school means travelling to Llwynderw. For north Gower, the school is Pontybrenin, since Y Login Fach has to take children from Swansea due to the lack of more WM schools in the centre of Swansea. That results in a one way journey of over 20km for children living in Llanmadoc. Even for a rural area, this is a ridiculous distance to have to travel, even if transport is provided. The equivalent journey for children going to an EM school is only a third of that, just over 6km, to Llanrhidian.
-
When it was clear that Llanmorlais was to close, Heini Gruffudd of RhAG put together a proposal to use the Llanmorlais building as a new WM primary school. Rather than repeat what he said, the proposal itself can be downloaded directly in either English or Welsh:
The case for a Welsh-medium Primary School for Llanmorlais
The school building isn't big, but it has capacity for 106 children, plus a nursery of 15. Although that may be small by urban standards, a school of that size is perfectly viable in a more rural setting. In fact only this year Swansea have invested in work to Llanrhidian School, which is only fractionally larger with 111 pupils, plus a nursery of 20. We can read about it here. So there is nothing intrinsically wrong with a school of this size in north Gower. The only reason Llanmorlais was closed is because there weren't enough children wanting go to Llanmorlais and Penclawdd to justify keeping both open, so the smaller one was closed.
But RhAG's proposal didn't seem to cut any ice with Swansea's education department.
So what then happened is that a local parent, Menna Jenkins, actually went out to other parents of pre-school age children in north Gower, and collected signatures from the parents of 45 children who wanted them to have a Welsh-medium education. This was reported in the local press on Tuesday.
Parents take Welsh school call to council
Parents and children calling for a Welsh-medium school in North Gower took their plea to Swansea Council today. This morning, campaigners handed a petition to cabinet member for education Mike Day and head of education Richard Parry at the Civic Centre.
Welsh speaker Menna Jenkins is part of campaign group Ysgol y Ogledd Gwyr/Welsh Primary for North Gower (YOG). The mum of two from Llanmadoc said:
"Despite now having a list of 45 names of children aged up to 4 years old, who would attend a Welsh- medium primary in North Gower, the director of education is refusing to open a school in the area. We actually have more names for one school year than most of the existing Gower English-medium schools. We feel this is grossly unfair."
To me, the case is quite clear. But let's consider Swansea's response:
Swansea Council plans to increase capacity at Welsh primaries at Gellionen, Pontybrenin and Tirdeunaw. There are also plans to use Graig infants in Morriston as a Welsh school, if the Assembly approves council proposals to close the school and merge with the nearby Pentrepoeth.
I commented on the Morriston proposal in the second half of this post. And yes, it is true that Swansea Council have plans to increase capacity at Pontybrenin, as well as two other WM schools. But what they say is misleading. Each school in Wales has a defined capacity, and there is a certain amount of leeway for schools to take in more pupils. But there is a limit to how much this can happen. If a local authority wants to increase capacity by more than 25%, it needs statutory approval. This is what Swansea is in the process of trying to get, as we can read in this document:
Consultation on proposal to increase capacity of three Welsh-medium schools
But this is just a paperwork exercise. They are going through the legal process of formally increasing the capacity of the school, but they are not planning on increasing the physical space available for children in these schools. As the consultation document makes clear, there is going to be no capital expenditure on the school accommodation in order to increase space. The situation is that they have been squeezing more and more children into the original school premises, and things have finally reached the point where they cannot continue to do that because it takes them over that 25% limit.
What is happening at YGG Pontybrenin is quite clear from the StatsWales figures:
Nursery 1 ... 7
Nursery 2 ... 72
Reception ... 47
Year 1 ... 52
Year 2 ... 50
Year 3 ... 37
Year 4 ... 28
Year 5 ... 32
Year 6 ... 22Total statutory ... 268
Total ... 347
Years 4 to 6 reflect the fact that this was a one form entry school with a capacity of 230 in 2006. Because of the increase in demand, they increased the admission number because, at that time, the older year groups were smaller and there was therefore room to do so. So Swansea currently present the capacity of the school at 331 (i.e. 47 x 7). They now want to increase the admission number to 60, which would equate to a standard two form entry school with a capacity of 420.
But look at the way they've worded the statutory proposal:
YGG Pontybrenin, Loughor Road, Gorseinon, Swansea
The number of full-time pupils at the school in January 2010 was 268. The present capacity at the school is 331. After the enlargement the proposed capacity at the school will be 420. The number of pupils to be admitted to the school at age 4/5 in the first school year in which the proposals have been implemented is 60.
I venture to suggest that any person reading this without being aware of the situation on the ground would conclude that the proposal is to physically enlarge the school. It isn't. For that reason I would urge the Education Minister, for I'm sure this will be referred to him, to set a condition that the admission numbers cannot be increased unless enough additional physical space is provided so as to prevent further overcrowding. I only wish that Swansea Council would do this at their own initiative. But they haven't, and they show no sign of doing so.
But even an admission number of 60 will not be enough. The figures show that the nursery currently has well in excess of even that admission number. In physical terms, this school is going to be so jam-packed that even the parents of children at Treganna will think that their accommodation is spacious ... and in comparison with what Swansea are proposing to get away with, it will be!
-
If Swansea were thinking of building a new extension block at Pontybrenin, I might have some sympathy with their intransigence to RhAG's proposal. But they're not. Or they might claim—as other local authorities have done—that it is not a good idea to have small schools, and that it is better for ch
In April this year, Leighton Andrews confirmed that three primary schools in Swansea could be closed because they had large numbers of surplus spaces, and alternative schools which also had spare space were available within easy travelling distance.
At the time, I wrote posts showing how two of them, Arfryn and Cwm, would be ideal locations for Welsh-medium schools. I still think that. And I have to admit that I didn't think that the third school, Llanmorlais, would be as suitable as the other two. But that only shows my lack of detailed local knowledge, or at least my knowledge of how determined local people would be, because they definitely have other ideas about it.
The map above shows the location of the primary schools on the Gower. Click it for a larger version. It is by no means a densely populated area, as can be seen from the relatively low number of red triangles for English-medium schools on the Gower compared with the western outskirts of Swansea. It should also be noted that north and south Gower are quite distinct, each with its main east-west links, but with comparatively few north-south links.
For south Gower, getting to a Welsh-medium school means travelling to Llwynderw. For north Gower, the school is Pontybrenin, since Y Login Fach has to take children from Swansea due to the lack of more WM schools in the centre of Swansea. That results in a one way journey of over 20km for children living in Llanmadoc. Even for a rural area, this is a ridiculous distance to have to travel, even if transport is provided. The equivalent journey for children going to an EM school is only a third of that, just over 6km, to Llanrhidian.
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When it was clear that Llanmorlais was to close, Heini Gruffudd of RhAG put together a proposal to use the Llanmorlais building as a new WM primary school. Rather than repeat what he said, the proposal itself can be downloaded directly in either English or Welsh:
The case for a Welsh-medium Primary School for Llanmorlais
The school building isn't big, but it has capacity for 106 children, plus a nursery of 15. Although that may be small by urban standards, a school of that size is perfectly viable in a more rural setting. In fact only this year Swansea have invested in work to Llanrhidian School, which is only fractionally larger with 111 pupils, plus a nursery of 20. We can read about it here. So there is nothing intrinsically wrong with a school of this size in north Gower. The only reason Llanmorlais was closed is because there weren't enough children wanting go to Llanmorlais and Penclawdd to justify keeping both open, so the smaller one was closed.
But RhAG's proposal didn't seem to cut any ice with Swansea's education department.
So what then happened is that a local parent, Menna Jenkins, actually went out to the parents of pre-school age children in north Gower, and collected signatures from the parents of 45 of them who wanted their children to have a Welsh-medium education. This was reported in the local press on Tuesday.
Parents take Welsh school call to council
Parents and children calling for a Welsh-medium school in North Gower took their plea to Swansea Council today. This morning, campaigners handed a petition to cabinet member for education Mike Day and head of education Richard Parry at the Civic Centre.
Welsh speaker Menna Jenkins is part of campaign group Ysgol y Ogledd Gwyr/Welsh Primary for North Gower (YOG). The mum of two from Llanmadoc said: "Despite now having a list of 45 names of children aged up to 4 years old, who would attend a Welsh- medium primary in North Gower, the director of education is refusing to open a school in the area. We actually have more names for one school year than most of the existing Gower English-medium schools. We feel this is grossly unfair."
To me, the case is quite clear. But let's consider Swansea's response:
Swansea Council plans to increase capacity at Welsh primaries at Gellionen, Pontybrenin and Tirdeunaw. There are also plans to use Graig infants in Morriston as a Welsh school, if the Assembly approves council proposals to close the school and merge with the nearby Pentrepoeth.
I commented on the Morriston proposal in the second half of this post. And yes, it is true that Swansea Council does have plans to increase capacity at Pontybrenin, as well as two other WM schools. But what they say is misleading. Each school in Wales has a defined capacity, and there is a certain amount of leeway for schools to take in more pupils. But there is a limit to how much this can happen. If a local authority wants to increase capacity by more than 25%, it needs statutory approval. This is what Swansea is in the process of trying to get, as we can read in this document:
Consultation on proposal to increase capacity of three Welsh-medium schools
But this is just a paperwork exercise. They are going through the legal process of formally increasing the capacity of the school, but they are not planning on increasing the physical space available for children in these schools. As the consultation document makes clear, there is going to be no capital expenditure on the school accommodation in order to increase space. The situation is that they have been squeezing more and more children into the original school premises, and things have finally reached the point where they cannot continue to do that because it takes them over that 25% limit.
What is happening at YGG Pontybrenin is quite clear from the StatsWales figures:
Nursery 1 ... 7
Nursery 2 ... 72
Reception ... 47
Year 1 ... 52
Year 2 ... 50
Year 3 ... 37
Year 4 ... 28
Year 5 ... 32
Year 6 ... 22Total statutory ... 268
Total ... 347
Years 4 to 6 reflect the fact that this was a one form entry school with a capacity of 230 in 2006. Because of the increase in demand, they increased the admission number because, at that time, the older year groups were smaller and there was therefore room to do so. So Swansea currently present the capacity of the school at 331 (i.e. 47 x 7). They now want to increase the admission number to 60, which would equate to a standard two form entry school with a capacity of 420.
But look at the way they've worded the statutory proposal:
YGG Pontybrenin, Loughor Road, Gorseinon, Swansea
The number of full-time pupils at the school in January 2010 was 268. The present capacity at the school is 331. After the enlargement the proposed capacity at the school will be 420. The number of pupils to be admitted to the school at age 4/5 in the first school year in which the proposals have been implemented is 60.
I venture to suggest that any person reading this without being aware of the situation on the ground would conclude that the proposal is to physically enlarge the school. It isn't. For that reason I would urge the Education Minister, for I'm sure this will be referred to him, to set a condition that the admission numbers cannot be increased unless enough additional physical space is provided so as to prevent further overcrowding. I only wish that Swansea Council would do this at their own initiative. But they haven't, and they show no sign of doing so.
But even an admission number of 60 will not be enough. The figures show that the nursery currently has well in excess of even that admission number. In physical terms, this school is going to be so jam-packed that even the parents of children at Treganna will think that their accommodation is spacious ... and in comparison with what Swansea are proposing to get away with, it will be!
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If Swansea were thinking of building a new extension block at Pontybrenin, I might have some sympathy with their intransigence to RhAG's proposal. But they're not. Or they might claim—as other local authorities have done—that it is not a good idea to have small schools, and that it is better f
25-Aug-10
The news on the circulation front continues to be bad for the Welsh regional press. Year on year figures dropped again with the Cardiff-based Western Mail and South Wales Echo recording the biggest percentage drop on just over 10% each.Acting on information received, police in Swansea executed a search warrant under the misuse of drugs act at the former Four Seasons club in Llansamlet. The early indications are that it is the largest haul of its kind in the area.
Unfortunately, the only response to be elicited from a council source was "Yeah ... right ...Trallwn Road, you say .... mmm ........ sorry, what was the question again?"
All this talk though of swimming pool donations has reminded me of another incident, in 2006, involving another swimming pool donation. I would like to warn Ms Driver, or the film company that any donations (I believe £2500 has already been publicly pledged) should not be left in used notes, stuffed in a brown envelope on Chief Executive Mark James' desk as this can, as you can see here, here and here, cause an awful lot of confusion.
All this talk though of swimming pool donations has reminded me of another incident, in 2006, involving another swimming pool donation. I would like to warn Ms Driver, or the film company that any donations (I believe £2500 has already been publicly pledged) should not be left in used notes, stuffed in a brown envelope on Chief Executive Mark James' desk as this can, as you can see here, here and here, cause an awful lot of confusion.
Stating that she has to 'strike the right balance', she will soon be filling the vacancy in the Executive Board and maybe having a reshuffle. With difficult times ahead she will have to ensure that the Executive Board remains entirely compliant with her's and Mark James' views and decisions regarding spending cuts. Although I personally have no political preferences, I wonder will she allow any Plaid members to enter the inner circle? - frozen out of any influential positions despite their increased vote in the 2008 local elections Plaid have been vociferous in opposition. However, she will wish to retain the Independent/Labour stranglehold and not embrace anything which will jeopardise the efficient rubber stamp of the Executive Board such as democracy and debate for instance.
Next month the public will be asked for suggestions for cost cutting measures, this will be a complete waste of time and money in the hands of Meryl and Mark. They have noticed that other councils in the UK are trotting out this exercise and it will be good PR, and nothing more. Not only has Cllr GraveLl already issued dire warnings should anyone wish to deviate from the masterplan but Mark James has already stated that the 'consultation' will not begin until 'decisions have been made'. mmm...I shall have a few suggestion to make anyway...
(earlier post here)
Still on the subject of wasting money, there was an interesting blog post yesterday on Borthlas' blog 'Moving Money Around' on the subject of Carmarthenshire Council's propaganda rag the 'Community News' which rather suggests that the 'self-financing' promise is not quite as it seems.
Must add that in a blatant piece of Council spin, the eagle-eyed media team have spotted the presence of a celebrity, Minnie Driver, in her Twitter bid to save Brynamman Lido - an issue they wanted nothing to do with until the word HOLLYWOOD appeared on the horizon - even using capital letters in their media section for that wonderful, starry word!
One of the things I look for when the GCSE results come out are the results for Welsh. Not particularly at the percentage of passes or grades achieved (which tends to creep up by a small fraction every year, in common with all GCSE subjects) but at the number of entries.
There are three different types of Welsh GCSE: Welsh First Language, Welsh Second Language (full course) and Welsh Second Language (short course). However a substantial number of Year 11 students, even though they study Welsh, do not take any Welsh GCSE. The number of different GCSEs taken can therefore be used as one indicator of the state of Welsh teaching in our schools.
Last year, the numbers taking WFL and WSL (full) went down. However this should be set against a general fall in pupil numbers, and in fact the percentages went up. The number taking the WSL (short) GCSE did rise, but only slightly. That made last year's results a little disappointing. But I'm delighted to say that figures for this year show a substantial improvement in numbers, even though the total number of Year 11 students continued to fall [see footnote].
Total number of Year 11 Students
35,822 (was 36,440) ... down 618Welsh First Language
5,444 entries (15.20% of year) ... was 5,254 (14.42%) ... up 190 (0.78%)Welsh Second Language (full course)
10,304 entries (28.76% of year) ... was 9,989 (27.41%) ... up 315 (1.35%)Welsh Second Language (short course)
12,485 entries (34.85% of year) ... was 11,485 (31.52%) ... up 1,000 (3.33%)Total Welsh Entries
28,233 (78.81% of year) ... was 26,728 (73.35%) ... up 1,505 (5.46%)Number who did not take any Welsh GCSE
7,589 (21.19% of year) ... was 9,712 (26.65%) ... down 2,123 (5.46%)
I tend not to give too much attention to the overall pass rate because nearly everyone who takes a GCSE passes it. The A*-C pass rate is more important. For WFL it was down from 73.1% to 71.6%, for WSL (full) it was up from 70.3% to 72.7% and for WSL (short) up from 44.6% to 47.7%.
The overall trends since 1998 can be seen in these two charts:
We have moved from a situation in which 65.98% of our children did not take an exam in Welsh to one in which only 21.19% do not take one. Overall, the last five years have seen very good progress, which is something to celebrate.
But we have to be careful not to over-represent what this means. Estyn continues to highlight that Welsh second language teaching in our schools is particularly poor. For some children, getting a WSL GCSE does reflect an ability to speak read and write Welsh competently, but for the majority it still represents only a grounding in the language. So these results show that more of our children are getting a better grounding.
If this rate of progress continues, we should get to the situation where every child gets a GCSE in Welsh within four or five years. But I'm sure we are aware that following the WSL (short) course and getting a GCSE at the end of it isn't very much of a qualification. All the indications are that it will be phased out in favour of the full WSL course. We should be looking for a "sliding scale" effect. We need more schools where students aren't taking any exam in Welsh to take the WSL short exam, more who are doing the short course to switch to the WSL full course and exam, and more who are doing the WSL full course to switch to WFL, even as a stream within predominantly English-medium schools.
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Doing the WFL course and getting a WFL GCSE is invariably a good indiction of the ability to speak, read and write Welsh competently. It is good to see a steady increase in the percentage of students taking the WFL GCSE, but we need to be aware that 16.3% of year 11 pupils are taught Welsh as a first language [Tab 7.18] but only 15.2% took the WFL GCSE. The discrepancy is not as great as in previous years (and here I must apologize for last year using the overall numbers in WM and bilingual schools rather than the specific number taught Welsh to first language standards) but it still means that about 400 children each year are opting to take a WSL (full) GCSE instead, probably because for an otherwise average student it is a sure-fire way of getting an A* grade, which might make all the difference to the next stage of their education. No one can blame a child for wanting to do that. But of course it also artificially boosts the school's statistics, which is a little underhand.
Note: The GCSE figures are published on the same basis each year, and so provide a uniform dataset. However it is more difficult to do this for the number of children in each year group. The StatsWales dataset for year 11 only goes back to 2005/06. Data up to 2007/08 was published in pdf form, and is helped by footnotes which the data on StatsWales lacks, but the numbers for the overlap years do not exactly match. The information from the school census downloadable as a spreadsheet gives another set of numbers for maintained schools which are about 1,400 below the 2007/08 pdf. Although there is a rough correlation between the pdf maintained figures and the StatsWales figures, which would suggest that the StatsWales figures do not include independent schools, adding the interpolated data for independent schools would increase the discrepancy to about 2,000. Therefore the "best fit" seems to be to take the StatsWales figures as a total. Doing this gives a uniform dataset for the past five years, with just one "break line" between 2004/05 and 2005/06. The data, including links to the various sources, are on this spreadsheet. If anyone can point to better data, or point out any mistake I've made in the figures, please let me know.
24-Aug-10
This disinterest was compounded in 2004 when Rhodri Morgan decided it was less important to mark the sacrifice made by thousands on the beaches in Normandy than to attend a launch event held to announce that the Ryder Cup was coming to Wales.
This was described then, and since, as a major coup for Wales. But for who? I'm sure I read somewhere that there are more people who go fishing in Wales on any given weekend than play golf. And I have become heartily sick of the giggly twats on BBC Radio Wales who speak with second-hand authority about "economic benefits" and then start recounting some obscure past Welsh connection with the tournament.
I'm more than willing to acknowledge that the Celtic Manor and securing the event is down to the accomplishments of millionaire Terry Matthews but I am definitely not impressed by the distasteful spectacle of him behaving like a petulant 18th century milord who throws a wobbly after being told he can't flatten a building so as to enjoy a less cluttered view from the drawing room or whatever.
On a personal level, and I suspect like many others, all I see is the inconvenience of interminable bloody roadworks on the M4 around Newport and a vague idea that other government investment is involved - a celeb-type bash in the Millennium Centre.
And that's the point. We are going to get the Ryder Cup rammed down our throats from 1-3 October but WHO ACTUALLY KNOWS how much public money has been spent to finance what is essentially going to be an upmarket golfing weekend in Wales?
In these days where every penny of public expenditure is under the microscope to assess value for money, it is bizarre that no-one seems to be asking the question.
23-Aug-10
Matthew Elliott, TPA chief executive said: "It is obscene that ordinary taxpayers, who don't earn much, are funding the lifestyles of the rich and the famous". Hmm.Thanks to Col·lectiu Emma, I've just read an interesting article by Paddy Woodworth, comparing what is happening in Catalunya with what is happening in Euskadi, the Basque Country, a place with which he seems to be well acquainted.
Madrid's nightmare
It's worth reading alongside a contrasting article that appeared just over a week ago in Spiegel Online.
Zero Tolerance in the Fight against ETA
One of the great imponderable questions of the last century is whether a country like Ireland would ever have won its independence from the United Kingdom if it had not fought a war for it; or whether the UK would later have relinquished its strategic interest in the north if people hadn't been prepared to fight for it. We in Wales and Scotland can only consider ourselves fortunate that we are now in a position to become independent when we vote for it.
But once a fight for independence has become violent—or indeed the fight to prevent it, for in any armed conflict both sides use violence—it requires no little effort and commitment to then fight by peaceful and democratic means.
To my mind, Der Spiegel's article reads too much like a vanity piece for Patxi Lopez. As I read the situation in Euskadi, the Basques will undoubtedly vote for independence whenever Spain allows them to do so ... that's why Spain refuses to let them exercise that choice. They have been able to portray far too many Basque leaders calling for independence as terrorist sympathizers, imprisoning them and banning their parties in an attempt to quash any mechanism by which independence could be achieved by democratic means.
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But Catalunya, like Wales and Scotland, has no real history of violence in the fight for independence, so the issue is not clouded in the same was as it has been in Ireland and Euskadi. If Catalunya can gain its independence by peaceful means (the onus being on the Spanish, because they're the ones who might use military force to prevent it) it will then be hard for them not to let Euskadi do the same.
And when Scotland wins its independence, it might in turn be the catalyst that triggers Irish reunification. For the unionist community has far stronger cultural and social links with Scotland than with the RUK. And their loyalty to the crown will be tested to breaking point when a queen they respect and can look up to passes away to be replaced by a son who cannot be looked up to.
22-Aug-10
'No indemnity may be provided under this Order in relation to the making by a member or officer indemnified of any claim in relation to an alleged defamation of that member or officer but may be provided in relation to the defence by that member or officer of any allegation of defamation made against that member or officer'
These are the Orders which form the governance of our local authorities, clearly Carmarthenshire Council feel they are above such inconvenient restrictions and have contrived to create their own set of rules.
From the limited disclosure I had back from the Wales Audit Office, it is clear that they (the WAO) were aware that these amendments to the constitution were unlawful, yet have allowed the council legal department to blatantly manipulate the law and threaten not only our freedom of speech but potentially, large sums of public money.
I am sure that, like the Audit Commission in England, the WAO's days are numbered. It is weak and ineffectual and appears fearful of the client. My only worry is that should the council audit process be taken over by private companies, would they want to risk lucrative contracts by finding fault? Probably not.
When it comes to planning, Freedom of Information, legal matters and the use/abuse of public resources, (please search this blog), senior officers of Carmarthenshire County Council write their own rules. I wonder for how much longer this will be allowed to go on for as they quite clearly consider themselves above the law and unaccountable to anyone.
http://carmarthenplanning.blogspot.com/2010/07/council-libel-funding-cost-to-public.html
The reason for Julia Gillard's failure to win a majority in yesterday's Australian elections became apparent when this picture was published yesterday.

It clearly shows her voting Green. She later apologized, saying that she was concentrating so much on the media that she didn't realize what she had been doing.
Unfortunately for the Australian Labor Party, many of their previous supporters did the same. Labor's share of the vote fell by 5.4%, and more than twice as many of those votes went to Green Party than went to the right wing Coalition.
I have every faith that he will win his case.
It is of note that not one Carmarthenshire County Councillor is prepared to write a blog in similar vein, but there again, in Carmarthenshire one is also at greater risk of a libel suit, no matter how truthful the content.
However, I intend to stand for Carmarthenshire County Councillor when the next opportunity arises and I shall continue my writing and aim to follow the fine tradition of Cllr Stoddart.
The Public Service Ombudsman for Wales has come under national criticism recently for investigating spurious complaints, Cardiff Councillor John Dixon's 'stupid scientology' tweet comes to mind and Old Grumpy's should be added to the list. Through personal experience it seem that the Ombudsman has lost the basic ethos that it's role is to protect the public from elected members who abuse their power or position for personal advantage or gain, in all it's many forms.
Time for the Ombudsman's office to have a major rethink on it's role as a monitoring authority before it finally crumbles and faces the same fate as the Standards Board for England.
21-Aug-10
When Kevin Rudd was deposed, it was an exercise in the supremacy of party machinery over the choice of the electorate. Labor thought that victory would be secure, because parties hardly ever lose after only one term. Julia Gillard has shown that neither being born in Wales, nor being a woman, provides any inoculation against being a bastard. I'm pleased to see that Labor's calculations have backfired.
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The House of Representatives was elected by AV, and its inherent unfairness is shown in the fact that the Greens got 11.5% of the vote, but only one out of the 150 seats.
Labor ... 37.9% of vote ... 72 seats = 48% of seats
Coalition ... 44.0% of vote ... 73 seats = 48.7% of seats
Greens ... 11.5% of vote ... 1 seat = 0.7% of seats
Others ... 6.6% ... 4 seats = 2.7% of seats
The Senate is elected under STV. And as a result the Greens now have 9 of the 75 seats (though only half the seats were up for election this time). A much fairer reflection of the way the votes were cast.
Labor ... 31 seats (15 new) = 41.3% of seats
Coalition ... 34 seats (18 new) = 45.3% of seats
Greens ... 9 (6 new) = 12.0% of seats
Others ... 2 (1 new) = 2.7% of seats
As a very good example of how counting for an STV election works, look at this page. It looks complicated but isn't. The first four of the six seats were decided very quickly (in the first five rounds of counting) with their surpluses redistributed. Then candidates with low support were eliminated and their votes redistributed until the two other candidates eventually reached the quota in rounds 33 and 36. I have to congratulate ABC for presenting the information so clearly.
We should use what has happened in Australia to inform our debate about the merits of AV and STV.
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The Coalition is an arrangement between the Liberal and National parties. I wonder if that will be the fate of the Tories and LibDems in the UK. Doing this sort of deal might be the only way for the LibDems to avoid being wiped out.
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As for the outcome, everything will now depend on the four Independent and one Green representative. One of the independents, David Wilkie, is very close to the Greens. It's very hard to imagine these two supporting the Coalition. If Labor were to pick up the remaining doubtful seats, they might just join with them at the price of getting Labor to pursue a more Green agenda. But I don't think Labor will.
Bob Katter is best described as an ex-National Party maverick, and as right as you can get. Robert Oakeshott is an ex-National, and will surely remain on the right. So is Tony Windsor, who is only standing as an independent because he wasn't selected as his party's official candidate a few years ago. These three should be natural allies for the Coalition which, added to the Coalition's projected 73 seats, will mean that Tony Abbott will become Prime Minister with a majority of two seats.
"The increased number of Planning Committees is contrary to both officer and a previous audit recommendation 3 (Sept 2008). The Council must demonstrate that an increase in the number of these Planning Committees represents an efficient and proper use of resources. This issue is an area that we will be reviewing through the summer months."
"Other increases to the number of committees will need to be justified in the light of the contents of the recent Independent Remuneration Panel for Wales. This report states: 'Councils should note we do not expect, as a consequence of our decision to remove Special Responsibility Allowances from chairs of non-regulatory and non-scrutiny committees and from all vice chairs, that there will be an increase in the number of posts attracting an SRA, other than when a well-evidenced rationale supported by the Council at large and which can be publicly justified is provided to the Panel for its consideration.'"
Are they dangerous to wider society ,are they a drain on scare resources,do they indoctrinate? Should they pay for themselves?
20-Aug-10
Following a question from Macsen about the Welsh Baccalaureate in the comments on my previous post on A Level results, I've looked into these results too, and they do have a very significant impact on the figures for Wales.

The Welsh Baccalaureate Advanced Diploma normally includes A Levels (although it can include alternative equivalents like NVQ level 3) and those A Levels are included in the published JCQ figures. However the WBac itself (i.e. the WBac "Core") counts as the equivalent of an additional A Level at grade A (120 UCAS points), but is not included in the JCQ figures.
There were 4,360 WBac Advanced Diplomas awarded this summer, which is very healthy in comparison with the 2,564 who took maths A Level in Wales and 3,732 who took English. But of much more significance is the fact that the WBac pass rate was 81% ... so if it were to be counted as an A Level in the JCQ figures, it would push the Welsh grade figures up dramatically.
A total of 37,315 A Levels were taken in Wales this summer, with an A*-A pass rate of 25.0%. But if the WBac Core is added, the number taken rises by 5,383 to 42,698 and the A*-A pass rate rises to 9,329 + 4,360 = 13,689 = 32.1%
The combined A*-A pass rate for Wales, England and NI is 27.0% (Scotland takes different exams). For England alone the figure is 26.8% and for NI 35.7%. However Welsh A Levels and the WBac together can't be taken as an exact equivalent to other countries' A Levels, because of factors such as the International Baccalaureate. There are schools which offer the IB in all the countries of Britain, including Wales, even though most are in England. But the IB works as a completely different alternative, replacing rather than complementing A Levels, and that makes comparison difficult. And it is offered by very few schools (fewer than 10%) although that percentage is increasing. In contrast the WBac is taken by over 40% of those in year 13 in Wales.
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So I now have to revise what I said before. It's not that our A Level students do slightly worse than England as a whole, but about equal to those regions of England with similar levels of prosperity. In terms of the sort of grades that get students into higher education, we in fact do quite a bit better than England, although it's difficult to put a precise figure on how much better. But we still spend much less money doing it.
Thanks Macsen. If you hadn't asked I wouldn't have looked for the figures. You've made my weekend ... and I hope yours!
In an interview with the Westminster Hour, to be aired on Sunday evening, he conceded that his party was likely to suffer in the local elections next May, saying: "I think it is one of the oldest rules in politics that parties in government... tend to get a dip in their popularity."No surprise there but how badly could the party lose out in Wales at next year's Assembly elections?
"Do I think we are going to be able to defy those rules of gravity at a time we are taking very difficult decisions on deficit reduction?" Mr Clegg added.
"No. I think that is unlikely."
Taking into account current polling trends, I've tried to think ahead (far ahead) to next May to see what the outcome might be for the Liberal Democrats here. Much like predicting the weather though - changes in the political climate between now and then will inevitably change this outcome...
At the moment the party hold 3 constituency seats (Brecon and Radnorshire, Montgomeryshire and Cardiff Central) and 3 of the regional seats (in North Wales, South Wales West and South Wales East).
Brecon and Radnorshire
Kirsty Williams' seat. If they lost here it would be a devastating blow to the party in Wales and across the UK. Ms Williams holds a majority of 5,000 in the seat she's held since the creation of the National Assembly. Her nearest rival was a Conservative while Labour and Plaid came a distant 3rd and 4th. If the Lib Dems were going to lose this seat, one would have to ask to whom would they lose it? Labour need to find 13,000 votes if they're to come close - that's about as many as they, the Conservatives and Plaid had at the last election here. Roger Williams' majority over Labour and Plaid is even more impressive and with Lib Dem voters unlikely to abandon the party to vote for the Conservatives I dare say Kirsty Williams could well cling on.
Montgomeryshire
They lost this seat at the General Election, and this time they don't have an incumbent candidate. It wouldn't be a total surprise if the Lib Dems aren't able to get their vote out here because of the coalition deal, while the Conservatives are - they could well take this seat. However, like Brecon and Radnorshire, all other parties come a distant 3rd and 4th in Montgomeryshire and the Conservatives (who traditionally don't always have the best showing in Assembly elections) might struggle to meet expectations - after all having Lembit Opik as his opponent probably helped push Glyn Davies over the mark in May. I'd put Montgomeryshire as too close to call.
Cardiff Central
Jenny Randerson made an all important breakthrough for the party by winning this seat in 1999. The area had traditionally been Labour but the Government in Westminster wasn't quite living up to expectations (as they never do) and so the Lib Dems snuck in - winning the corresponding Westminster seat in 2005. The tables could well turn this time around. Labour need an increase of 7,000 votes this time but anger and frustration might just about rally their supporters enough, and bear in mind Jenny Randerson is standing down this time too. This seat could well be a loss for the Liberal Democrats next year, they'll be fighting bitterly to save it.
The Regional Seats
Due to the peculiarity of the Additional Member Voting system the more constituency seats the party loses the more regional seats they pick up (that's assuming the vote doesn't completely and utterly collapse).
If the party lost the Powys seats they would almost certainly pick up a seat in Mid and West Wales - likewise in South Wales Central. Because of their poor showing at constituency level in South Wales East and West but a reasonable vote on the list (by comparison to other parties) those seats would likely not be lost.
Their North Wales seat is under threat (that's Eleanor Burnham). The party polled just 15,000 votes across the whole region at the last Assembly election while other competitive parties all had more than 50,000. The Conservatives could well gain some constituency seats, as could Labour, and Plaid look competitive. If any constituency seats change hands and the Lib Dems lose regional votes (and they don't have to lose that many) through a fluke of maths (and democracy I suppose) they will lose this seat.
So where does that leave them?
Not looking too shabby actually - but then they are starting from a low base. The party is unlikely to gain in the Assembly election but they may only come away with a net loss of 1 or 2 seats. Which wouldn't be devastating. They always did want to break that six seat deadlock they've had since the Assembly came into being but it's a long way of Kirsty's Project 31...
Dewi Tri
I thought it would be a good idea to comment about the level of expenditure per head in Wales on education, particularly as it has been given as a reason for the Wales relative performance in A level results relative to England.
School 'funding gap' dispute in Wales after A-levels
In the first instance, I think that a pass rate of 97.1 % as opposed to the 97.6% is insignificant. All it shows is that the vast majority of those who sit A levels pass them. A levels are primarily used as a basis of selection for further courses, it the grades matter much more than the small percentage that fail.
But as for the grades, I found an article in the Telegraph to be more enlightening than anything I read elsewhere. It gives the percentages that got the new A* grade for each region of England. In tabular form they are:
London ... 9.6%
South East ... 9.6%
Yorkshire/Humberside ... 9.0%
South West ... 8.6%
East ... 8.3%
West Midlands ... 7.4%
East Midlands ... 6.9%
North West ... 6.7%
North East ... 6.3%
Although the correlation isn't exact, it seems obvious that there is a good degree of correlation between these results and the relative prosperity of these areas.
The figure for Wales was 6.5%, and that puts us above the north east of England and just behind the north west of England ... which happens to roughly match where we are on most economic indicators. That therefore leads me to think that our results have less to do with how much per head we spend on education than on general economic prosperity. More affluent parents tend (because they can more easily afford it, not because they care less about their children) to invest more in their children's education. This can be anything from having more books in the house, to having more space in the house so that a child can concentrate on homework in quiet, to being able to afford a computer and decent internet access, to paying for additional tuition.
So how relevant is the £527 per head difference? Without putting too fine a point on it, it would be hard to find anyone working in education who doesn't want extra money spent on education; just as we won't find anyone in the NHS who doesn't want more spent on health ... or in social services who doesn't want more spent on care ... or in the police who doesn't want more spent on law and order. So of course people who work in education want more spent on education, especially at a time when everyone is concerned about job security.
But the real question is whether it would make a difference.
Personally, I doubt whether it would. Things aren't as simple as that. Of course this doesn't mean that I have any objection to spending more on education; but at a time when public spending is being cut back drastically one could say that England has something to learn from us if we can achieve broadly similar results to equivalent regions in England, but do it for £527 per child less.
Diane Abbott is in Scotland for the next week or so, trying to gather support for her leadership bid.
Far be it from me to comment on Labour's internal affairs, but if Diane Abbott has anything in her favour it's that she is the only left wing candidate in the field. There might be shades of difference between the others, but they're all straight out of the new Labour mold.
In this interview with the Herald, she explains why she's now concentrating on Scotland:
Ms Abbott, the MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington in London, will visit Glasgow and Edinburgh as part of her visit, taking in meetings with Scottish trade union leaders and speaking at Holyrood's Festival of Politics.
"I think I have a lot of potential support in Scotland," she said, adding that she was the only leadership candidate of the left. "I think what I am saying about things like the role of the private sector is much more in tune with Scottish Labour than what a lot of the other candidates are saying. But I need to get my message across.
"I have not spent a week and a half in Wales. I genuinely think the Scottish Labour party has always had a very fundamental role in British Labour politics. In a way the Scottish Labour movement is the keeper of the flame when it comes to socialism. I think whoever wins (in Scotland) deserves to win overall."
I'm not sure whether or not to thank Diane for her decision not to bother with Wales. Of course it shows that Wales is of little importance to her party, but that's not news. The more telling thing is that she does not regard the Labour Party in Wales as having any particularly left wing credentials. Who can blame her for that? Just look at the sort of MPs that Labour now picks to fight seats in Wales.
Or perhaps she knows more than she lets on. With her consistent opposition to things such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and for being against Trident, and for greater fairness in society and narrowing rather than widening the gap between rich and poor, spending time here might make it rather obvious that her views are much more in line with those of Plaid Cymru than with anyone in the Labour Party in Wales. She might be staying out of Wales in order not to embarrass them.
19-Aug-10
The TUC research, published in advance of the 100 day anniversary of the coalition Government tomorrow (Thursday), shows that cuts which impact more on the poorest families in the UK have been made across the board in services including education, health, housing, welfare and social care.
Examples of cuts the TUC believes are unfair include:
- Free school meals - The cancelled measure would have extended entitlement to free school meals to about 500,000 families in work on low pay from September this year. Cost £125m.
- Every child a reader - This programme to provide early support to children with literacy difficulties (focussed on inner-city schools) will be cut by at least £5m and its future is not guaranteed.
- City Challenge Fund - This programme aimed to provide extra support to under-performing children in the most deprived areas, but has been cut by £8m this year.
- Building Schools for the Future - This scrapped programme was the biggest-ever school buildings investment plan. The aim was to rebuild or renew nearly every secondary school in England. Cost £7.5bn.
- Housing benefit - Nearly a million (936,960) households will lose around £624 a year as a result of changes to housing benefit. Londoners will be worst hit.
- Homes and Communities Agency - Cuts to programmes including Kickstart (for restarting stalled house building programmes), affordable housing, gypsy and traveller support and Housing Market Renewal (improvements to housing in deprived areas). Cost £450m.
- Young Person's Guarantee - £450m has been cut from the Guarantee, which will be abolished in April 2011. This Guarantee promised unemployed young people access to a job, training or work after six months of unemployment.
- Working Neighbourhood Fund - This fund, which aimed to help unemployed people in deprived areas to move into work, has been cut by £49.9m.
- Domestic Violence Protection Orders - Scheme to create two-week banning orders so that victims of domestic abuse can look for protection in the safety of their own house.
According to the obituaries, he was Scottish trade unionist who led a successful work-in at the Upper Clyde shipyard in the early 1970s. The event is consigned to the dusty shelves of political history today but as Brian Wilson, writing in the Guardian states, it was "an event that galvanised working-class consciousness, challenged political moralities and haunted the premiership of Edward Heath".
Undoubtedly confrontational and incredibly charismatic, Reid was as much a problem for the trade union establishment as he was for government ministers. He was uncompromisingly socialist in his beliefs and his principled stand at a time when political disillusionment was first emerging within UK society, gained him a range of admirers from unlikely quarters. But it also often put him at odds with a left-wing who treated his popularity with suspicion.
As Wilson states, Reid was far too intellectually and politically astute to become a kneejerk supporter of faddy leftwing causes. He was a proponent of making Labour electable and saw little benefit to be gained from seeking unwinnable battles with Thatcherite forces. His refusal to endorse Arthur Scargill's handling of the miner's strike earned him bitter criticism and the rift became too wide for reconciliation.
To his death, Reid remained an influence for politicians seeking a distinctive Scots agenda which meant something more than touting a thistle on the lapel. His skills at rhetoric never deserted him and whilst he always dismissed any similarity with Lech Walesa and the Polish Solidarity union, he is said to have enjoyed the irony of how a worker occupation in Gdansk's shipyards put a communist regime on the back foot.
In 2005 he announced that he had joined the Scottish National party and the recriminations were surprisingly few. For many, the man had simply come home.
Jimmy Reid, trade unionist and journalist, born 9 July 1932; died 10 August 2010
There is an active and ongoing debate over on Dylan Jones -Evans blog on the ERP and the demise of business support more here http://dylanje.blogspot.com
There seems to be a wealth of strong feeling and lots being done by many involved in the sharp end of this and those businesses who are suffering as a consequence.
But hang on a lot of business I know are members of various organisations, clubs and networks
Why aren't the representative bodies doing a more active and visible job?
Its not about sitting in posh offices and shooting off emails and notes to ministers and AMs. Members pay to have their voices hear as a group,and a rather large and important group at that.
CBI,FSB,Chambers, Business Clubs and networks -where is the combined voice?
Protesting isn't just the domain of activists and its not confined to answering on line consultations that no one takes any notice of any way.
Where are those well paid representatives ,are they beating a way to WAG's door, rushing up to Anglesey to get audience with IWJ or to Bridgend to raise their voices to Carwyn?
Have they contacted every local MP,AM,Councillor etc?
Surely that's what members pat subscriptions for, not to be lone voices but to have the might of mass behind them.
Get a lobby going , get a protest outside WAG and demand answers.
I think may be its time to get out of those business suits and into some action man/woman suits.
Thanks to one of the comments on Caledonian Mercury, I've just spent half an hour watching this film on Scottish Independence.
It's quite good. Well ... except for the singing.
18-Aug-10
Hot on the tail of this dragon, I've found something else that appeals to my inner child.
Details from here. Of course the professional side of me will justify this post on the grounds of getting the scroll box to work. Just slide the button to see the whole thing. And the linguist in me just likes the word frieze. It's a word I haven't heard in years.
But the Welsh word is even more obscure. GPC gives addurndalaith and pilladdurn, but googling them gives only one return for the first and none for the second. I particularly like addurndalaith ... now I just have to see if I can work it into a normal conversation.
17-Aug-10
It is rumoured that one potential candidate for the post, is Cllr Stephen James, who is also Mayor of Pembrey and Burry Port.
With a vacancy now arisen on the Executive Board as well, there may be interesting times ahead...
Bananas!
I noticed, from the Welsh Assembly website, that even in a state of financial turmoil we are safe in the knowledge that our leaders in the Bay have committed themselves to the standardisation of the humble banana, perhaps they will be checking them coming over the Severn Bridge.
Quality Standards for Bananas (Enforcement) Regulations 2010
Trip to Delhi
I see that the Wales Minister for Heritage, Alun Ffred Jones is off to Delhi in October to attend the Commonwealth Games - I don't suppose he's taking part but I am sure his presence is absolutely essential and, being as though we've paid for him to go, perhaps he will pop into the Welsh Assembly Office in Mumbai (cost 2009-2010 £72,000) to make sure that is absolutely essential too. I also note that,
'Section 61 (i) of the Government of Wales Act 2006 (GOWA 2006) allows Welsh Ministers to do anything which they consider appropriate to support sport and recreational activities relating to Wales'
I bet tickets and flights are already booked for the Rugby World Cup in new Zealand next year - that's sure to be 'considered appropriate'!
As has been observed elsewhere, the glove-puppets at Suck-up Central have reversed the telescope by virtually congratulating Wales Office minister David Jones for his statement that "alcohol licensing will never be devolved".




































