It's been some time since the political situation in Belgium has been in the news here, but what has happened over the weekend is probably enough to justify a progress report.

The federal election took place on 13 June this year, and resulted in large gains for the N-VA in Flanders and for the Parti Socialiste in Wallonia, but negotiations have still not led to a federal government being formed. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, as it was always expected that negotiations would take months rather than weeks. It goes without saying that the situation is complicated, but I'm going to attempt to explain things as I see them. As the EU has a penchant for pillars, I'll build on that theme.
 

Pillar 1

The basic premise on which agreement will be reached is that—even though the N-VA is the largest party, and therefore its leader Bart De Wever might normally expect to be Prime Minister—the Parti Socialiste leader Elio di Rupo would be Prime Minister, provided that the constitutional changes wanted by the N-VA were implemented.

The longstanding outstanding issue is the electoral/judicial district of BH-V (Brussels Halle-Vilvoorde) whose constituent parts have different constitutional statuses. Brussels is one of the three geographical regions of Belgium (the other two being Flanders and Wallonia) but Halle-Vilvoorde is part of Flanders. The three regions are constitutionally distinct from the three language communities of Belgium (Dutch, French and German-speaking) with Brussels having bilingual status. It is this overlap between "regions" and "communities" that gives rise to the problem, both at a political level (because political parties in Belgium operate as separate linguistic entities) and in terms of administration of justice.

There are of course a number of ways in which the BH-V problem could be solved, and indeed some do not see a problem at all ... or, to be more precise, would see the problem not as the electoral region itself, but in the idea of the current arrangement of regions and communities. However the Constitutional Court has ruled that the current arrangement is anomalous and must to be resolved, but has not said how. In general terms, Dutch speakers are primarily concerned that Halle-Vilvoorde remains unambiguously part of Flanders; whereas French speakers see the area as a suburb of Brussels, especially the narrow southern strip that separates Brussels from Wallonia. The map below shows Halle-Vilvoorde in red and Brussels in white. In grey is Leuven, the other district in Flemish Brabant. Wallonia is to the south.
     
So the first plank of the deal is that BH-V is split as the main Flemish parties want.
 

Pillar 2

If BH-V is split, Brussels itself becomes more tightly defined and might be seen to be disadvantaged. In time honoured fashion, the solution is to smooth any reform by means of money. So, as I read the situation, the consensus seems to be that the Brussels region should get a better financial deal. The sum being talked about is €500m a year. In political terms Brussels is run by the Parti Socialiste. So, as far as Elio di Rupo is concerned, the deal should stand on these two pillars alone ... and he does have the agreement of the Flemish Greens and Socialists, as well as the Walloon parties in the negotiations.

But the two big Flemish parties, the N-VA and CD&V, the Flemish Christian Democrats, do not want to agree a deal for financing Brussels without a wider agreement on a formula for rebalancing finances of Flanders and Wallonia as well. The negotiations now seem to have broken down on this point.

It isn't really clear what the precise sticking points are because nothing has yet been committed to paper. In general terms Flanders wants more of tax money retained at regional level rather than forwarded to federal government. Wallonia is anxious to maintain the current arrangement because it is a net beneficiary of federal redistribution. According to this report about €14bn of public spending should shift from being spent by the federal government to being spent by the regional governments, but this is only a very small part of overall public spending which is just short of €200bn a year. Also, as we in Wales and Scotland know only too well, having a budget to spend is only half of the fiscal equation - good governance is not only about spending money, it is about being responsible for how that money is raised.

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So it remains to be seen what will happen next. As the report I linked to says:

On Sunday Di Rupo said rival sides positions' were "incompatible" and announced he would give up his mediation efforts. But a day later he said he bowed to demands by King Albert II to soldier on 'out of a sense of loyalty to the state.'

Flemish newspaper De Standaard argued that the weekend's events seriously compromised relations between the main political players, dashing initial hopes that arch-rivals Di Rupo and De Wever could strike a business-like partnership.

"We are not yet negotiating the final split-up of the Belgians. Feelings and intentions are not there yet. But on Sunday night we took a further step in that direction," the paper warned ominously.

I don't think it's reached that point yet, either. The major reason why Belgium has not split so far is because of deciding what to do about Brussels and the surrounding areas. So, if the situation as I read it is correct, an agreement about what exactly constitutes Brussels and what constitutes Flanders is more important for the eventual independence of Flanders than any shorter-term arrangement about finances. I do not think the Flemish parties would throw that away. If things are as reported, the BH-V split without additional concessions to French speakers in Halle-Vilvoorde has given them what they wanted.

But equally, the Flemish parties are not going to be content without any move towards greater fiscal autonomy for the regions. The balance between taxes set and collected by the federal treasury (about 90%) and those set and retained in the regions would need to shift. Di Rupo has proposed a Commission "to formulate proposals to suggest new funding models" but, as we in Wales and Scotland know, this might be of little value unless matched by political commitment.

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To us it might seem strange that Belgium could run without a government since June, but it isn't really a problem for them. It's not even a hundred days yet. Up until now things have been very cordial and consensual. So perhaps this first sign of so-called irreconcilable disagreement is evidence that the hard negotiation has only just begun.

In April this year, Leighton Andrews confirmed that three primary schools in Swansea could be closed because they had large numbers of surplus spaces, and alternative schools which also had spare space were available within easy travelling distance.

At the time, I wrote posts showing how two of them, Arfryn and Cwm, would be ideal locations for Welsh-medium schools. I still think that. And I have to admit that I didn't think that the third school, Llanmorlais, would be as suitable as the other two. But that only shows my lack of detailed local knowledge, or at least my knowledge of how determined local people would be, because they definitely have other ideas about it.

The map above shows the location of the primary schools on the Gower. Click it for a larger version. It is by no means a densely populated area, as can be seen from the relatively low number of red triangles for English-medium schools on the Gower compared with the western outskirts of Swansea. It should also be noted that north and south Gower are quite distinct, each with its main east-west links, but with comparatively few north-south links.

For south Gower, getting to a Welsh-medium school means travelling to Llwynderw. For north Gower, the school is Pontybrenin, since Y Login Fach has to take children from Swansea due to the lack of more WM schools in the centre of Swansea. That results in a one way journey of over 20km for children living in Llanmadoc. Even for a rural area, this is a ridiculous distance to have to travel, even if transport is provided. The equivalent journey for children going to an EM school is only a third of that, just over 6km, to Llanrhidian.

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When it was clear that Llanmorlais was to close, Heini Gruffudd of RhAG put together a proposal to use the Llanmorlais building as a new WM primary school. Rather than repeat what he said, the proposal itself can be downloaded directly in either English or Welsh:

The case for a Welsh-medium Primary School for Llanmorlais

English  •  Cymraeg

The school building isn't big, but it has capacity for 106 children, plus a nursery of 15. Although that may be small by urban standards, a school of that size is perfectly viable in a more rural setting. In fact only this year Swansea have invested in work to Llanrhidian School, which is only fractionally larger with 111 pupils, plus a nursery of 20. We can read about it here. So there is nothing intrinsically wrong with a school of this size in north Gower. The only reason Llanmorlais was closed is because there weren't enough children wanting go to Llanmorlais and Penclawdd to justify keeping both open, so the smaller one was closed.

But RhAG's proposal didn't seem to cut any ice with Swansea's education department.

So what then happened is that a local parent, Menna Jenkins, actually went out to other parents of pre-school age children in north Gower, and collected signatures from the parents of 45 children who wanted them to have a Welsh-medium education. This was reported in the local press on Tuesday.

Parents take Welsh school call to council

Parents and children calling for a Welsh-medium school in North Gower took their plea to Swansea Council today. This morning, campaigners handed a petition to cabinet member for education Mike Day and head of education Richard Parry at the Civic Centre.

Welsh speaker Menna Jenkins is part of campaign group Ysgol y Ogledd Gwyr/Welsh Primary for North Gower (YOG). The mum of two from Llanmadoc said:

"Despite now having a list of 45 names of children aged up to 4 years old, who would attend a Welsh- medium primary in North Gower, the director of education is refusing to open a school in the area. We actually have more names for one school year than most of the existing Gower English-medium schools. We feel this is grossly unfair."

Swansea Evening Post, 24 August 2010

To me, the case is quite clear. But let's consider Swansea's response:

Swansea Council plans to increase capacity at Welsh primaries at Gellionen, Pontybrenin and Tirdeunaw. There are also plans to use Graig infants in Morriston as a Welsh school, if the Assembly approves council proposals to close the school and merge with the nearby Pentrepoeth.

I commented on the Morriston proposal in the second half of this post. And yes, it is true that Swansea Council have plans to increase capacity at Pontybrenin, as well as two other WM schools. But what they say is misleading. Each school in Wales has a defined capacity, and there is a certain amount of leeway for schools to take in more pupils. But there is a limit to how much this can happen. If a local authority wants to increase capacity by more than 25%, it needs statutory approval. This is what Swansea is in the process of trying to get, as we can read in this document:

     Consultation on proposal to increase capacity of three Welsh-medium schools

But this is just a paperwork exercise. They are going through the legal process of formally increasing the capacity of the school, but they are not planning on increasing the physical space available for children in these schools. As the consultation document makes clear, there is going to be no capital expenditure on the school accommodation in order to increase space. The situation is that they have been squeezing more and more children into the original school premises, and things have finally reached the point where they cannot continue to do that because it takes them over that 25% limit.

What is happening at YGG Pontybrenin is quite clear from the StatsWales figures:

Nursery 1 ... 7
Nursery 2 ... 72
Reception ... 47
Year 1 ... 52
Year 2 ... 50
Year 3 ... 37
Year 4 ... 28
Year 5 ... 32
Year 6 ... 22

Total statutory ... 268
Total ... 347

Years 4 to 6 reflect the fact that this was a one form entry school with a capacity of 230 in 2006. Because of the increase in demand, they increased the admission number because, at that time, the older year groups were smaller and there was therefore room to do so. So Swansea currently present the capacity of the school at 331 (i.e. 47 x 7). They now want to increase the admission number to 60, which would equate to a standard two form entry school with a capacity of 420.

But look at the way they've worded the statutory proposal:

YGG Pontybrenin, Loughor Road, Gorseinon, Swansea

The number of full-time pupils at the school in January 2010 was 268. The present capacity at the school is 331. After the enlargement the proposed capacity at the school will be 420. The number of pupils to be admitted to the school at age 4/5 in the first school year in which the proposals have been implemented is 60.

Statutory Notice, 21 May 2010

I venture to suggest that any person reading this without being aware of the situation on the ground would conclude that the proposal is to physically enlarge the school. It isn't. For that reason I would urge the Education Minister, for I'm sure this will be referred to him, to set a condition that the admission numbers cannot be increased unless enough additional physical space is provided so as to prevent further overcrowding. I only wish that Swansea Council would do this at their own initiative. But they haven't, and they show no sign of doing so.

But even an admission number of 60 will not be enough. The figures show that the nursery currently has well in excess of even that admission number. In physical terms, this school is going to be so jam-packed that even the parents of children at Treganna will think that their accommodation is spacious ... and in comparison with what Swansea are proposing to get away with, it will be!

-

If Swansea were thinking of building a new extension block at Pontybrenin, I might have some sympathy with their intransigence to RhAG's proposal. But they're not. Or they might claim—as other local authorities have done—that it is not a good idea to have small schools, and that it is better for ch

In April this year, Leighton Andrews confirmed that three primary schools in Swansea could be closed because they had large numbers of surplus spaces, and alternative schools which also had spare space were available within easy travelling distance.

At the time, I wrote posts showing how two of them, Arfryn and Cwm, would be ideal locations for Welsh-medium schools. I still think that. And I have to admit that I didn't think that the third school, Llanmorlais, would be as suitable as the other two. But that only shows my lack of detailed local knowledge, or at least my knowledge of how determined local people would be, because they definitely have other ideas about it.

The map above shows the location of the primary schools on the Gower. Click it for a larger version. It is by no means a densely populated area, as can be seen from the relatively low number of red triangles for English-medium schools on the Gower compared with the western outskirts of Swansea. It should also be noted that north and south Gower are quite distinct, each with its main east-west links, but with comparatively few north-south links.

For south Gower, getting to a Welsh-medium school means travelling to Llwynderw. For north Gower, the school is Pontybrenin, since Y Login Fach has to take children from Swansea due to the lack of more WM schools in the centre of Swansea. That results in a one way journey of over 20km for children living in Llanmadoc. Even for a rural area, this is a ridiculous distance to have to travel, even if transport is provided. The equivalent journey for children going to an EM school is only a third of that, just over 6km, to Llanrhidian.

-

When it was clear that Llanmorlais was to close, Heini Gruffudd of RhAG put together a proposal to use the Llanmorlais building as a new WM primary school. Rather than repeat what he said, the proposal itself can be downloaded directly in either English or Welsh:

The case for a Welsh-medium Primary School for Llanmorlais

English  •  Cymraeg

The school building isn't big, but it has capacity for 106 children, plus a nursery of 15. Although that may be small by urban standards, a school of that size is perfectly viable in a more rural setting. In fact only this year Swansea have invested in work to Llanrhidian School, which is only fractionally larger with 111 pupils, plus a nursery of 20. We can read about it here. So there is nothing intrinsically wrong with a school of this size in north Gower. The only reason Llanmorlais was closed is because there weren't enough children wanting go to Llanmorlais and Penclawdd to justify keeping both open, so the smaller one was closed.

But RhAG's proposal didn't seem to cut any ice with Swansea's education department.

So what then happened is that a local parent, Menna Jenkins, actually went out to other parents of pre-school age children in north Gower, and collected signatures from the parents of 45 children who wanted them to have a Welsh-medium education. This was reported in the local press on Tuesday.

Parents take Welsh school call to council

Parents and children calling for a Welsh-medium school in North Gower took their plea to Swansea Council today. This morning, campaigners handed a petition to cabinet member for education Mike Day and head of education Richard Parry at the Civic Centre.

Welsh speaker Menna Jenkins is part of campaign group Ysgol y Ogledd Gwyr/Welsh Primary for North Gower (YOG). The mum of two from Llanmadoc said:

"Despite now having a list of 45 names of children aged up to 4 years old, who would attend a Welsh- medium primary in North Gower, the director of education is refusing to open a school in the area. We actually have more names for one school year than most of the existing Gower English-medium schools. We feel this is grossly unfair."

Swansea Evening Post, 24 August 2010

To me, the case is quite clear. But let's consider Swansea's response:

Swansea Council plans to increase capacity at Welsh primaries at Gellionen, Pontybrenin and Tirdeunaw. There are also plans to use Graig infants in Morriston as a Welsh school, if the Assembly approves council proposals to close the school and merge with the nearby Pentrepoeth.

I commented on the Morriston proposal in the second half of this post. And yes, it is true that Swansea Council have plans to increase capacity at Pontybrenin, as well as two other WM schools. But what they say is misleading. Each school in Wales has a defined capacity, and there is a certain amount of leeway for schools to take in more pupils. But there is a limit to how much this can happen. If a local authority wants to increase capacity by more than 25%, it needs statutory approval. This is what Swansea is in the process of trying to get, as we can read in this document:

     Consultation on proposal to increase capacity of three Welsh-medium schools

But this is just a paperwork exercise. They are going through the legal process of formally increasing the capacity of the school, but they are not planning on increasing the physical space available for children in these schools. As the consultation document makes clear, there is going to be no capital expenditure on the school accommodation in order to increase space. The situation is that they have been squeezing more and more children into the original school premises, and things have finally reached the point where they cannot continue to do that because it takes them over that 25% limit.

What is happening at YGG Pontybrenin is quite clear from the StatsWales figures:

Nursery 1 ... 7
Nursery 2 ... 72
Reception ... 47
Year 1 ... 52
Year 2 ... 50
Year 3 ... 37
Year 4 ... 28
Year 5 ... 32
Year 6 ... 22

Total statutory ... 268
Total ... 347

Years 4 to 6 reflect the fact that this was a one form entry school with a capacity of 230 in 2006. Because of the increase in demand, they increased the admission number because, at that time, the older year groups were smaller and there was therefore room to do so. So Swansea currently present the capacity of the school at 331 (i.e. 47 x 7). They now want to increase the admission number to 60, which would equate to a standard two form entry school with a capacity of 420.

But look at the way they've worded the statutory proposal:

YGG Pontybrenin, Loughor Road, Gorseinon, Swansea

The number of full-time pupils at the school in January 2010 was 268. The present capacity at the school is 331. After the enlargement the proposed capacity at the school will be 420. The number of pupils to be admitted to the school at age 4/5 in the first school year in which the proposals have been implemented is 60.

Statutory Notice, 21 May 2010

I venture to suggest that any person reading this without being aware of the situation on the ground would conclude that the proposal is to physically enlarge the school. It isn't. For that reason I would urge the Education Minister, for I'm sure this will be referred to him, to set a condition that the admission numbers cannot be increased unless enough additional physical space is provided so as to prevent further overcrowding. I only wish that Swansea Council would do this at their own initiative. But they haven't, and they show no sign of doing so.

But even an admission number of 60 will not be enough. The figures show that the nursery currently has well in excess of even that admission number. In physical terms, this school is going to be so jam-packed that even the parents of children at Treganna will think that their accommodation is spacious ... and in comparison with what Swansea are proposing to get away with, it will be!

-

If Swansea were thinking of building a new extension block at Pontybrenin, I might have some sympathy with their intransigence to RhAG's proposal. But they're not. Or they might claim—as other local authorities have done—that it is not a good idea to have small schools, and that it is better for ch

In April this year, Leighton Andrews confirmed that three primary schools in Swansea could be closed because they had large numbers of surplus spaces, and alternative schools which also had spare space were available within easy travelling distance.

At the time, I wrote posts showing how two of them, Arfryn and Cwm, would be ideal locations for Welsh-medium schools. I still think that. And I have to admit that I didn't think that the third school, Llanmorlais, would be as suitable as the other two. But that only shows my lack of detailed local knowledge, or at least my knowledge of how determined local people would be, because they definitely have other ideas about it.

The map above shows the location of the primary schools on the Gower. Click it for a larger version. It is by no means a densely populated area, as can be seen from the relatively low number of red triangles for English-medium schools on the Gower compared with the western outskirts of Swansea. It should also be noted that north and south Gower are quite distinct, each with its main east-west links, but with comparatively few north-south links.

For south Gower, getting to a Welsh-medium school means travelling to Llwynderw. For north Gower, the school is Pontybrenin, since Y Login Fach has to take children from Swansea due to the lack of more WM schools in the centre of Swansea. That results in a one way journey of over 20km for children living in Llanmadoc. Even for a rural area, this is a ridiculous distance to have to travel, even if transport is provided. The equivalent journey for children going to an EM school is only a third of that, just over 6km, to Llanrhidian.

-

When it was clear that Llanmorlais was to close, Heini Gruffudd of RhAG put together a proposal to use the Llanmorlais building as a new WM primary school. Rather than repeat what he said, the proposal itself can be downloaded directly in either English or Welsh:

The case for a Welsh-medium Primary School for Llanmorlais

English  •  Cymraeg

The school building isn't big, but it has capacity for 106 children, plus a nursery of 15. Although that may be small by urban standards, a school of that size is perfectly viable in a more rural setting. In fact only this year Swansea have invested in work to Llanrhidian School, which is only fractionally larger with 111 pupils, plus a nursery of 20. We can read about it here. So there is nothing intrinsically wrong with a school of this size in north Gower. The only reason Llanmorlais was closed is because there weren't enough children wanting go to Llanmorlais and Penclawdd to justify keeping both open, so the smaller one was closed.

But RhAG's proposal didn't seem to cut any ice with Swansea's education department.

So what then happened is that a local parent, Menna Jenkins, actually went out to the parents of pre-school age children in north Gower, and collected signatures from the parents of 45 of them who wanted their children to have a Welsh-medium education. This was reported in the local press on Tuesday.

Parents take Welsh school call to council

Parents and children calling for a Welsh-medium school in North Gower took their plea to Swansea Council today. This morning, campaigners handed a petition to cabinet member for education Mike Day and head of education Richard Parry at the Civic Centre.

Welsh speaker Menna Jenkins is part of campaign group Ysgol y Ogledd Gwyr/Welsh Primary for North Gower (YOG). The mum of two from Llanmadoc said: "Despite now having a list of 45 names of children aged up to 4 years old, who would attend a Welsh- medium primary in North Gower, the director of education is refusing to open a school in the area. We actually have more names for one school year than most of the existing Gower English-medium schools. We feel this is grossly unfair."

Swansea Evening Post, 24 August 2010

To me, the case is quite clear. But let's consider Swansea's response:

Swansea Council plans to increase capacity at Welsh primaries at Gellionen, Pontybrenin and Tirdeunaw. There are also plans to use Graig infants in Morriston as a Welsh school, if the Assembly approves council proposals to close the school and merge with the nearby Pentrepoeth.

I commented on the Morriston proposal in the second half of this post. And yes, it is true that Swansea Council does have plans to increase capacity at Pontybrenin, as well as two other WM schools. But what they say is misleading. Each school in Wales has a defined capacity, and there is a certain amount of leeway for schools to take in more pupils. But there is a limit to how much this can happen. If a local authority wants to increase capacity by more than 25%, it needs statutory approval. This is what Swansea is in the process of trying to get, as we can read in this document:

     Consultation on proposal to increase capacity of three Welsh-medium schools

But this is just a paperwork exercise. They are going through the legal process of formally increasing the capacity of the school, but they are not planning on increasing the physical space available for children in these schools. As the consultation document makes clear, there is going to be no capital expenditure on the school accommodation in order to increase space. The situation is that they have been squeezing more and more children into the original school premises, and things have finally reached the point where they cannot continue to do that because it takes them over that 25% limit.

What is happening at YGG Pontybrenin is quite clear from the StatsWales figures:

Nursery 1 ... 7
Nursery 2 ... 72
Reception ... 47
Year 1 ... 52
Year 2 ... 50
Year 3 ... 37
Year 4 ... 28
Year 5 ... 32
Year 6 ... 22

Total statutory ... 268
Total ... 347

Years 4 to 6 reflect the fact that this was a one form entry school with a capacity of 230 in 2006. Because of the increase in demand, they increased the admission number because, at that time, the older year groups were smaller and there was therefore room to do so. So Swansea currently present the capacity of the school at 331 (i.e. 47 x 7). They now want to increase the admission number to 60, which would equate to a standard two form entry school with a capacity of 420.

But look at the way they've worded the statutory proposal:

YGG Pontybrenin, Loughor Road, Gorseinon, Swansea

The number of full-time pupils at the school in January 2010 was 268. The present capacity at the school is 331. After the enlargement the proposed capacity at the school will be 420. The number of pupils to be admitted to the school at age 4/5 in the first school year in which the proposals have been implemented is 60.

Statutory Notice, 21 May 2010

I venture to suggest that any person reading this without being aware of the situation on the ground would conclude that the proposal is to physically enlarge the school. It isn't. For that reason I would urge the Education Minister, for I'm sure this will be referred to him, to set a condition that the admission numbers cannot be increased unless enough additional physical space is provided so as to prevent further overcrowding. I only wish that Swansea Council would do this at their own initiative. But they haven't, and they show no sign of doing so.

But even an admission number of 60 will not be enough. The figures show that the nursery currently has well in excess of even that admission number. In physical terms, this school is going to be so jam-packed that even the parents of children at Treganna will think that their accommodation is spacious ... and in comparison with what Swansea are proposing to get away with, it will be!

-

If Swansea were thinking of building a new extension block at Pontybrenin, I might have some sympathy with their intransigence to RhAG's proposal. But they're not. Or they might claim—as other local authorities have done—that it is not a good idea to have small schools, and that it is better f

One of the things I look for when the GCSE results come out are the results for Welsh. Not particularly at the percentage of passes or grades achieved (which tends to creep up by a small fraction every year, in common with all GCSE subjects) but at the number of entries.

There are three different types of Welsh GCSE: Welsh First Language, Welsh Second Language (full course) and Welsh Second Language (short course). However a substantial number of Year 11 students, even though they study Welsh, do not take any Welsh GCSE. The number of different GCSEs taken can therefore be used as one indicator of the state of Welsh teaching in our schools.

Last year, the numbers taking WFL and WSL (full) went down. However this should be set against a general fall in pupil numbers, and in fact the percentages went up. The number taking the WSL (short) GCSE did rise, but only slightly. That made last year's results a little disappointing. But I'm delighted to say that figures for this year show a substantial improvement in numbers, even though the total number of Year 11 students continued to fall [see footnote].

Total number of Year 11 Students
35,822 (was 36,440) ... down 618

Welsh First Language
5,444 entries (15.20% of year) ... was 5,254 (14.42%) ... up 190 (0.78%)

Welsh Second Language (full course)
10,304 entries (28.76% of year) ... was 9,989 (27.41%) ... up 315 (1.35%)

Welsh Second Language (short course)
12,485 entries (34.85% of year) ... was 11,485 (31.52%) ... up 1,000 (3.33%)

Total Welsh Entries
28,233 (78.81% of year) ... was 26,728 (73.35%) ... up 1,505 (5.46%)

Number who did not take any Welsh GCSE
7,589 (21.19% of year) ... was 9,712 (26.65%) ... down 2,123 (5.46%)

Source for GCSE results
Source for Year 11 size

I tend not to give too much attention to the overall pass rate because nearly everyone who takes a GCSE passes it. The A*-C pass rate is more important. For WFL it was down from 73.1% to 71.6%, for WSL (full) it was up from 70.3% to 72.7% and for WSL (short) up from 44.6% to 47.7%.

The overall trends since 1998 can be seen in these two charts:

We have moved from a situation in which 65.98% of our children did not take an exam in Welsh to one in which only 21.19% do not take one. Overall, the last five years have seen very good progress, which is something to celebrate.

But we have to be careful not to over-represent what this means. Estyn continues to highlight that Welsh second language teaching in our schools is particularly poor. For some children, getting a WSL GCSE does reflect an ability to speak read and write Welsh competently, but for the majority it still represents only a grounding in the language. So these results show that more of our children are getting a better grounding.

If this rate of progress continues, we should get to the situation where every child gets a GCSE in Welsh within four or five years. But I'm sure we are aware that following the WSL (short) course and getting a GCSE at the end of it isn't very much of a qualification. All the indications are that it will be phased out in favour of the full WSL course. We should be looking for a "sliding scale" effect. We need more schools where students aren't taking any exam in Welsh to take the WSL short exam, more who are doing the short course to switch to the WSL full course and exam, and more who are doing the WSL full course to switch to WFL, even as a stream within predominantly English-medium schools.

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Doing the WFL course and getting a WFL GCSE is invariably a good indiction of the ability to speak, read and write Welsh competently. It is good to see a steady increase in the percentage of students taking the WFL GCSE, but we need to be aware that 16.3% of year 11 pupils are taught Welsh as a first language [Tab 7.18] but only 15.2% took the WFL GCSE. The discrepancy is not as great as in previous years (and here I must apologize for last year using the overall numbers in WM and bilingual schools rather than the specific number taught Welsh to first language standards) but it still means that about 400 children each year are opting to take a WSL (full) GCSE instead, probably because for an otherwise average student it is a sure-fire way of getting an A* grade, which might make all the difference to the next stage of their education. No one can blame a child for wanting to do that. But of course it also artificially boosts the school's statistics, which is a little underhand.

Note: The GCSE figures are published on the same basis each year, and so provide a uniform dataset. However it is more difficult to do this for the number of children in each year group. The StatsWales dataset for year 11 only goes back to 2005/06. Data up to 2007/08 was published in pdf form, and is helped by footnotes which the data on StatsWales lacks, but the numbers for the overlap years do not exactly match. The information from the school census downloadable as a spreadsheet gives another set of numbers for maintained schools which are about 1,400 below the 2007/08 pdf. Although there is a rough correlation between the pdf maintained figures and the StatsWales figures, which would suggest that the StatsWales figures do not include independent schools, adding the interpolated data for independent schools would increase the discrepancy to about 2,000. Therefore the "best fit" seems to be to take the StatsWales figures as a total. Doing this gives a uniform dataset for the past five years, with just one "break line" between 2004/05 and 2005/06. The data, including links to the various sources, are on this spreadsheet. If anyone can point to better data, or point out any mistake I've made in the figures, please let me know.

Thanks to Col·lectiu Emma, I've just read an interesting article by Paddy Woodworth, comparing what is happening in Catalunya with what is happening in Euskadi, the Basque Country, a place with which he seems to be well acquainted.

  Madrid's nightmare

  

  Foreign Policy, 20 August 2010

It's worth reading alongside a contrasting article that appeared just over a week ago in Spiegel Online.

  Zero Tolerance in the Fight against ETA

  

  Spiegel Online, 13 August 2010

One of the great imponderable questions of the last century is whether a country like Ireland would ever have won its independence from the United Kingdom if it had not fought a war for it; or whether the UK would later have relinquished its strategic interest in the north if people hadn't been prepared to fight for it. We in Wales and Scotland can only consider ourselves fortunate that we are now in a position to become independent when we vote for it.

But once a fight for independence has become violent—or indeed the fight to prevent it, for in any armed conflict both sides use violence—it requires no little effort and commitment to then fight by peaceful and democratic means.

To my mind, Der Spiegel's article reads too much like a vanity piece for Patxi Lopez. As I read the situation in Euskadi, the Basques will undoubtedly vote for independence whenever Spain allows them to do so ... that's why Spain refuses to let them exercise that choice. They have been able to portray far too many Basque leaders calling for independence as terrorist sympathizers, imprisoning them and banning their parties in an attempt to quash any mechanism by which independence could be achieved by democratic means.

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But Catalunya, like Wales and Scotland, has no real history of violence in the fight for independence, so the issue is not clouded in the same was as it has been in Ireland and Euskadi. If Catalunya can gain its independence by peaceful means (the onus being on the Spanish, because they're the ones who might use military force to prevent it) it will then be hard for them not to let Euskadi do the same.

And when Scotland wins its independence, it might in turn be the catalyst that triggers Irish reunification. For the unionist community has far stronger cultural and social links with Scotland than with the RUK. And their loyalty to the crown will be tested to breaking point when a queen they respect and can look up to passes away to be replaced by a son who cannot be looked up to.

The reason for Julia Gillard's failure to win a majority in yesterday's Australian elections became apparent when this picture was published yesterday.

It clearly shows her voting Green. She later apologized, saying that she was concentrating so much on the media that she didn't realize what she had been doing.

Unfortunately for the Australian Labor Party, many of their previous supporters did the same. Labor's share of the vote fell by 5.4%, and more than twice as many of those votes went to Green Party than went to the right wing Coalition.

When Kevin Rudd was deposed, it was an exercise in the supremacy of party machinery over the choice of the electorate. Labor thought that victory would be secure, because parties hardly ever lose after only one term. Julia Gillard has shown that neither being born in Wales, nor being a woman, provides any inoculation against being a bastard. I'm pleased to see that Labor's calculations have backfired.

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The House of Representatives was elected by AV, and its inherent unfairness is shown in the fact that the Greens got 11.5% of the vote, but only one out of the 150 seats.

Labor ... 37.9% of vote ... 72 seats = 48% of seats
Coalition ... 44.0% of vote ... 73 seats = 48.7% of seats
Greens ... 11.5% of vote ... 1 seat = 0.7% of seats
Others ... 6.6% ... 4 seats = 2.7% of seats

The Senate is elected under STV. And as a result the Greens now have 9 of the 75 seats (though only half the seats were up for election this time). A much fairer reflection of the way the votes were cast.

Labor ... 31 seats (15 new) = 41.3% of seats
Coalition ... 34 seats (18 new) = 45.3% of seats
Greens ... 9 (6 new) = 12.0% of seats
Others ... 2 (1 new) = 2.7% of seats

As a very good example of how counting for an STV election works, look at this page. It looks complicated but isn't. The first four of the six seats were decided very quickly (in the first five rounds of counting) with their surpluses redistributed. Then candidates with low support were eliminated and their votes redistributed until the two other candidates eventually reached the quota in rounds 33 and 36. I have to congratulate ABC for presenting the information so clearly.

We should use what has happened in Australia to inform our debate about the merits of AV and STV.

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The Coalition is an arrangement between the Liberal and National parties. I wonder if that will be the fate of the Tories and LibDems in the UK. Doing this sort of deal might be the only way for the LibDems to avoid being wiped out.

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As for the outcome, everything will now depend on the four Independent and one Green representative. One of the independents, David Wilkie, is very close to the Greens. It's very hard to imagine these two supporting the Coalition. If Labor were to pick up the remaining doubtful seats, they might just join with them at the price of getting Labor to pursue a more Green agenda. But I don't think Labor will.

Bob Katter is best described as an ex-National Party maverick, and as right as you can get. Robert Oakeshott is an ex-National, and will surely remain on the right. So is Tony Windsor, who is only standing as an independent because he wasn't selected as his party's official candidate a few years ago. These three should be natural allies for the Coalition which, added to the Coalition's projected 73 seats, will mean that Tony Abbott will become Prime Minister with a majority of two seats.

"The increased number of Planning Committees is contrary to both officer and a previous audit recommendation 3 (Sept 2008). The Council must demonstrate that an increase in the number of these Planning Committees represents an efficient and proper use of resources. This issue is an area that we will be reviewing through the summer months."

"Other increases to the number of committees will need to be justified in the light of the contents of the recent Independent Remuneration Panel for Wales. This report states: 'Councils should note we do not expect, as a consequence of our decision to remove Special Responsibility Allowances from chairs of non-regulatory and non-scrutiny committees and from all vice chairs, that there will be an increase in the number of posts attracting an SRA, other than when a well-evidenced rationale supported by the Council at large and which can be publicly justified is provided to the Panel for its consideration.'"

Following a question from Macsen about the Welsh Baccalaureate in the comments on my previous post on A Level results, I've looked into these results too, and they do have a very significant impact on the figures for Wales.

The Welsh Baccalaureate Advanced Diploma normally includes A Levels (although it can include alternative equivalents like NVQ level 3) and those A Levels are included in the published JCQ figures. However the WBac itself (i.e. the WBac "Core") counts as the equivalent of an additional A Level at grade A (120 UCAS points), but is not included in the JCQ figures.

There were 4,360 WBac Advanced Diplomas awarded this summer, which is very healthy in comparison with the 2,564 who took maths A Level in Wales and 3,732 who took English. But of much more significance is the fact that the WBac pass rate was 81% ... so if it were to be counted as an A Level in the JCQ figures, it would push the Welsh grade figures up dramatically.

A total of 37,315 A Levels were taken in Wales this summer, with an A*-A pass rate of 25.0%. But if the WBac Core is added, the number taken rises by 5,383 to 42,698 and the A*-A pass rate rises to 9,329 + 4,360 = 13,689 = 32.1%

The combined A*-A pass rate for Wales, England and NI is 27.0% (Scotland takes different exams). For England alone the figure is 26.8% and for NI 35.7%. However Welsh A Levels and the WBac together can't be taken as an exact equivalent to other countries' A Levels, because of factors such as the International Baccalaureate. There are schools which offer the IB in all the countries of Britain, including Wales, even though most are in England. But the IB works as a completely different alternative, replacing rather than complementing A Levels, and that makes comparison difficult. And it is offered by very few schools (fewer than 10%) although that percentage is increasing. In contrast the WBac is taken by over 40% of those in year 13 in Wales.

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So I now have to revise what I said before. It's not that our A Level students do slightly worse than England as a whole, but about equal to those regions of England with similar levels of prosperity. In terms of the sort of grades that get students into higher education, we in fact do quite a bit better than England, although it's difficult to put a precise figure on how much better. But we still spend much less money doing it.

Thanks Macsen. If you hadn't asked I wouldn't have looked for the figures. You've made my weekend ... and I hope yours!

In an interview with the Westminster Hour, to be aired on Sunday evening, he conceded that his party was likely to suffer in the local elections next May, saying: "I think it is one of the oldest rules in politics that parties in government... tend to get a dip in their popularity."

"Do I think we are going to be able to defy those rules of gravity at a time we are taking very difficult decisions on deficit reduction?" Mr Clegg added.

"No. I think that is unlikely."

I thought it would be a good idea to comment about the level of expenditure per head in Wales on education, particularly as it has been given as a reason for the Wales relative performance in A level results relative to England.

     School 'funding gap' dispute in Wales after A-levels

In the first instance, I think that a pass rate of 97.1 % as opposed to the 97.6% is insignificant. All it shows is that the vast majority of those who sit A levels pass them. A levels are primarily used as a basis of selection for further courses, it the grades matter much more than the small percentage that fail.

But as for the grades, I found an article in the Telegraph to be more enlightening than anything I read elsewhere. It gives the percentages that got the new A* grade for each region of England. In tabular form they are:

London ... 9.6%
South East ... 9.6%
Yorkshire/Humberside ... 9.0%
South West ... 8.6%
East ... 8.3%
West Midlands ... 7.4%
East Midlands ... 6.9%
North West ... 6.7%
North East ... 6.3%

The Telegraph, 19 August 2010

Although the correlation isn't exact, it seems obvious that there is a good degree of correlation between these results and the relative prosperity of these areas.

The figure for Wales was 6.5%, and that puts us above the north east of England and just behind the north west of England ... which happens to roughly match where we are on most economic indicators. That therefore leads me to think that our results have less to do with how much per head we spend on education than on general economic prosperity. More affluent parents tend (because they can more easily afford it, not because they care less about their children) to invest more in their children's education. This can be anything from having more books in the house, to having more space in the house so that a child can concentrate on homework in quiet, to being able to afford a computer and decent internet access, to paying for additional tuition.

So how relevant is the £527 per head difference? Without putting too fine a point on it, it would be hard to find anyone working in education who doesn't want extra money spent on education; just as we won't find anyone in the NHS who doesn't want more spent on health ... or in social services who doesn't want more spent on care ... or in the police who doesn't want more spent on law and order. So of course people who work in education want more spent on education, especially at a time when everyone is concerned about job security.

But the real question is whether it would make a difference.

Personally, I doubt whether it would. Things aren't as simple as that. Of course this doesn't mean that I have any objection to spending more on education; but at a time when public spending is being cut back drastically one could say that England has something to learn from us if we can achieve broadly similar results to equivalent regions in England, but do it for £527 per child less.

Diane Abbott is in Scotland for the next week or so, trying to gather support for her leadership bid.

Far be it from me to comment on Labour's internal affairs, but if Diane Abbott has anything in her favour it's that she is the only left wing candidate in the field. There might be shades of difference between the others, but they're all straight out of the new Labour mold.

In this interview with the Herald, she explains why she's now concentrating on Scotland:

Ms Abbott, the MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington in London, will visit Glasgow and Edinburgh as part of her visit, taking in meetings with Scottish trade union leaders and speaking at Holyrood's Festival of Politics.

"I think I have a lot of potential support in Scotland," she said, adding that she was the only leadership candidate of the left. "I think what I am saying about things like the role of the private sector is much more in tune with Scottish Labour than what a lot of the other candidates are saying. But I need to get my message across.

"I have not spent a week and a half in Wales. I genuinely think the Scottish Labour party has always had a very fundamental role in British Labour politics. In a way the Scottish Labour movement is the keeper of the flame when it comes to socialism. I think whoever wins (in Scotland) deserves to win overall."

The Herald, 19 August 2010

I'm not sure whether or not to thank Diane for her decision not to bother with Wales. Of course it shows that Wales is of little importance to her party, but that's not news. The more telling thing is that she does not regard the Labour Party in Wales as having any particularly left wing credentials. Who can blame her for that? Just look at the sort of MPs that Labour now picks to fight seats in Wales.

Or perhaps she knows more than she lets on. With her consistent opposition to things such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and for being against Trident, and for greater fairness in society and narrowing rather than widening the gap between rich and poor, spending time here might make it rather obvious that her views are much more in line with those of Plaid Cymru than with anyone in the Labour Party in Wales. She might be staying out of Wales in order not to embarrass them.

• Free school meals - The cancelled measure would have extended entitlement to free school meals to about 500,000 families in work on low pay from September this year. Cost £125m.
• Every child a reader - This programme to provide early support to children with literacy difficulties (focussed on inner-city schools) will be cut by at least £5m and its future is not guaranteed.
• City Challenge Fund - This programme aimed to provide extra support to under-performing children in the most deprived areas, but has been cut by £8m this year.
• Building Schools for the Future - This scrapped programme was the biggest-ever school buildings investment plan. The aim was to rebuild or renew nearly every secondary school in England. Cost £7.5bn.
• Housing benefit - Nearly a million (936,960) households will lose around £624 a year as a result of changes to housing benefit. Londoners will be worst hit.
• Homes and Communities Agency - Cuts to programmes including Kickstart (for restarting stalled house building programmes), affordable housing, gypsy and traveller support and Housing Market Renewal (improvements to housing in deprived areas). Cost £450m.
• Young Person's Guarantee - £450m has been cut from the Guarantee, which will be abolished in April 2011. This Guarantee promised unemployed young people access to a job, training or work after six months of unemployment.
• Working Neighbourhood Fund - This fund, which aimed to help unemployed people in deprived areas to move into work, has been cut by £49.9m.
• Domestic Violence Protection Orders - Scheme to create two-week banning orders so that victims of domestic abuse can look for protection in the safety of their own house.

Thanks to one of the comments on Caledonian Mercury, I've just spent half an hour watching this film on Scottish Independence.
 

It's quite good. Well ... except for the singing.

Hot on the tail of this dragon, I've found something else that appeals to my inner child.
 

 
Details from here. Of course the professional side of me will justify this post on the grounds of getting the scroll box to work. Just slide the button to see the whole thing. And the linguist in me just likes the word frieze. It's a word I haven't heard in years.

But the Welsh word is even more obscure. GPC gives addurndalaith and pilladdurn, but googling them gives only one return for the first and none for the second. I particularly like addurndalaith ... now I just have to see if I can work it into a normal conversation.